# Amazon：2026-09-20业务状态与股东结果历史案例
冻结2026年9月20日的业务、资本、条件定价与概率判断；保留2026年9月18日参考价及2029年末条件结果。
Entry: zh-amzn-research-20260920 | Node: CASE-AMZN-20260920 | Language: zh | Editorial revision: 2026-09-21
Research cutoff: 2026-09-20 | Data period: 2025Q4–2026Q2 facts and dated subsequent disclosures; conditional paths 2026H2–2029
## Teaching instructions
先读取该日期案例所用单元与原文。保留事实、代理、未来路径、分布近似及资本限制；只解释既有研究，不更新报价或产生新推荐。
Before substantive teaching, actually retrieve every required reading unit for the selected scope. Read its complete designated section, including necessary assumptions, tables and footnotes. A working URL or an editorial access date is not a runtime reading receipt. Record the actual version, location, scope and what it supports. If unavailable, use a previously verified equivalent source; if the required unit remains unavailable, identify that gap rather than teach it from memory. Start runtime_reading_log empty. Once reading is complete, use a substantive diagnostic or follow the reader's request for direct explanation. Advance one complete reasoning task at a time; skip mastered basics. Distinguish original facts, supplied teaching assumptions and inference.
## Required readings and runtime protocol
```json
{
"export_mode": "public",
"required_readings": [
{
"source_id": "PBCD-CASE-AMZN",
"title": "Amazon：2026-09-20历史条件研究案例",
"version": "研究截止2026-09-20；教学摘编2026-09-21",
"access": {
"kind": "site_body",
"uri": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/zh/notebook/amzn-research-20260920/",
"availability": "staged_site_body; accessible after adoption"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "case-amzn-identity及当前问题的相应完整单元",
"scope": "身份与所用单元",
"purpose": "固定日期和结果身份"
},
"supports": "原研究的事实/分析代理、四条未来路径、5项具名替代、4套权重与16组已算分布。报价冻结，代表点不是条件均值。",
"authors": [
"本站历史研究"
]
}
],
"optional_readings": [],
"runtime_reading_log": [],
"supplied_inputs": {
"uri": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/notebook/labs/p-bcd/inputs.json",
"data": {
"format": "portfolio-frozen-teaching-inputs-v1",
"case_id": "CASE-AMZN-20260920",
"aliases": [
"CASE-PBCD-AMZN-20260920"
],
"metadata": {
"information_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
"purchase_date": "2026-09-18",
"valuation_date": "2029-12-31",
"purchase_price": 253.71,
"currency": "USD",
"money_unit": "billion",
"share_unit": "billion",
"quote_type": "regular_close",
"quote_time": "16:00 EDT",
"years": 3.2854209445585214,
"cash_distributions": 0,
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"result_identity": "历史研究的未来条件结果；不是当期目标价；期间分配为零；救援发行不等于原股东强制追加现金"
},
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},
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},
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},
"ai_delay_core_attach_linked_capital_unchanged": {
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},
"detail_export": "冻结敏感性仅保存本项汇总；本包不生成未导出的逐季度路径或改倍数版本。"
}
},
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"quarter": 2,
"lease_principal": 0.5586,
"sbc": 6.25,
"cash_tax": 2.0,
"wc_cash": -2.5,
"known_issue_cash": 0,
"known_issue_principal": 0,
"openai_cash": 0,
"globalstar_cash": 6,
"anthropic_cash": 1.25
},
{
"pre_financing_cash": 34.91961354176297,
"ending_cash": 60.0,
"core_cash_flow": -23.83038645823703,
"new_growth_debt": 25.49467492578097,
"equity_proceeds": 0.0,
"fees": 0.12747337462890485,
"net_interest": 3.0718600373225815,
"ebit": 21.261814830867475,
"da": 18.38144365530303,
"cash_capex": 62.879999999999995,
"year": 2027,
"quarter": 3,
"lease_principal": 0.5586,
"sbc": 6.25,
"cash_tax": 2.0,
"wc_cash": -1.5,
"known_issue_cash": 0,
"known_issue_principal": 0,
"openai_cash": 0,
"globalstar_cash": 0,
"anthropic_cash": 1.25
},
{
"pre_financing_cash": 49.103174374273365,
"ending_cash": 60.0,
"core_cash_flow": -9.646825625726638,
"new_growth_debt": 11.076824015986414,
"equity_proceeds": 0.0,
"fees": 0.05538412007993207,
"net_interest": 3.483289400417464,
"ebit": 23.813232610571575,
"da": 20.587216893939395,
"cash_capex": 62.879999999999995,
"year": 2027,
"quarter": 4,
"lease_principal": 0.5586,
"sbc": 6.25,
"cash_tax": 2.0,
"wc_cash": 8.5,
"known_issue_cash": 0,
"known_issue_principal": 0,
"openai_cash": 0,
"globalstar_cash": 0,
"anthropic_cash": 1.25
},
{
"pre_financing_cash": 15.257610910144159,
"ending_cash": 60.0,
"core_cash_flow": -44.74238908985584,
"new_growth_debt": 45.481462861352824,
"equity_proceeds": 0.0,
"fees": 0.2274073143067641,
"net_interest": 4.42855412778753,
"ebit": 16.566847645135415,
"da": 20.488250935606064,
"cash_capex": 49.84700000000001,
"year": 2028,
"quarter": 1,
"lease_principal": 0.7836,
"sbc": 6.75,
"cash_tax": 2.75,
"wc_cash": -31.25,
"known_issue_cash": 0,
"known_issue_principal": 0,
"openai_cash": 0,
"globalstar_cash": 0,
"anthropic_cash": 0.0
},
{
"pre_financing_cash": 50.96636923840466,
"ending_cash": 60.0,
"core_cash_flow": -9.033630761595338,
"new_growth_debt": 9.182852108356126,
"equity_proceeds": 0.0,
"fees": 0.04591426054178063,
"net_interest": 5.043527671196756,
"ebit": 17.287145368836953,
"da": 21.379044454545458,
"cash_capex": 42.726,
"year": 2028,
"quarter": 2,
"lease_principal": 0.7836,
"sbc": 6.75,
"cash_tax": 2.75,
"wc_cash": -3.25,
"known_issue_cash": 0,
"known_issue_principal": 0,
"openai_cash": 0,
"globalstar_cash": 0,
"anthropic_cash": 0.0
},
{
"pre_financing_cash": 53.37084630860759,
"ending_cash": 60.0,
"core_cash_flow": -6.629153691392412,
"new_growth_debt": 6.738656865456072,
"equity_proceeds": 0.0,
"fees": 0.03369328432728036,
"net_interest": 5.222644647152143,
"ebit": 18.007443092538495,
"da": 22.26983797348485,
"cash_capex": 42.726,
"year": 2028,
"quarter": 3,
"lease_principal": 0.7836,
"sbc": 6.75,
"cash_tax": 2.75,
"wc_cash": -2.25,
"known_issue_cash": 0,
"known_issue_principal": 0,
"openai_cash": 0,
"globalstar_cash": 0,
"anthropic_cash": 0.0
},
{
"pre_financing_cash": 68.08543307068226,
"ending_cash": 68.08543307068226,
"core_cash_flow": 8.085433070682253,
"new_growth_debt": 0.0,
"equity_proceeds": 0.0,
"fees": 0.0,
"net_interest": 5.265521723263897,
"ebit": 20.168336263643116,
"da": 24.942218530303034,
"cash_capex": 42.726,
"year": 2028,
"quarter": 4,
"lease_principal": 0.7836,
"sbc": 6.75,
"cash_tax": 2.75,
"wc_cash": 7.75,
"known_issue_cash": 0,
"known_issue_principal": 0,
"openai_cash": 0,
"globalstar_cash": 0,
"anthropic_cash": 0.0
},
{
"pre_financing_cash": 26.00966885759096,
"ending_cash": 60.0,
"core_cash_flow": -42.0757642130913,
"new_growth_debt": 22.766075804954454,
"equity_proceeds": 11.652466401291548,
"fees": 0.17209271103123003,
"net_interest": 5.800433120010027,
"ebit": 16.877385321726628,
"da": 23.188265232386364,
"cash_capex": 47.201,
"year": 2029,
"quarter": 1,
"lease_principal": 0.8961000000000001,
"sbc": 7.25,
"cash_tax": 3.75,
"wc_cash": -32.0,
"known_issue_cash": 0,
"known_issue_principal": 0,
"openai_cash": 0,
"globalstar_cash": 0,
"anthropic_cash": 0.0
},
{
"pre_financing_cash": 53.86161011831355,
"ending_cash": 60.0,
"core_cash_flow": -6.138389881686448,
"new_growth_debt": 0.0,
"equity_proceeds": 6.169236061996433,
"fees": 0.030846180309982162,
"net_interest": 6.091925242499999,
"ebit": 17.611184683540827,
"da": 24.196450677272725,
"cash_capex": 40.458,
"year": 2029,
"quarter": 2,
"lease_principal": 0.8961000000000001,
"sbc": 7.25,
"cash_tax": 3.75,
"wc_cash": -4.0,
"known_issue_cash": 0,
"known_issue_principal": 0,
"openai_cash": 0,
"globalstar_cash": 0,
"anthropic_cash": 0.0
},
{
"pre_financing_cash": 56.60359492501412,
"ending_cash": 60.0,
"core_cash_flow": -3.396405074985877,
"new_growth_debt": 0.0,
"equity_proceeds": 3.413472437171737,
"fees": 0.017067362185858685,
"net_interest": 6.091925242499999,
"ebit": 18.34498404535503,
"da": 25.20463612215909,
"cash_capex": 40.458,
"year": 2029,
"quarter": 3,
"lease_principal": 0.8961000000000001,
"sbc": 7.25,
"cash_tax": 3.75,
"wc_cash": -3.0,
"known_issue_cash": 0,
"known_issue_principal": 0,
"openai_cash": 0,
"globalstar_cash": 0,
"anthropic_cash": 0.0
},
{
"pre_financing_cash": 71.8790067485007,
"ending_cash": 71.8790067485007,
"core_cash_flow": 11.879006748500705,
"new_growth_debt": 0.0,
"equity_proceeds": 0.0,
"fees": 0.0,
"net_interest": 6.042467839115117,
"ebit": 20.546382130797635,
"da": 28.229192456818183,
"cash_capex": 40.458,
"year": 2029,
"quarter": 4,
"lease_principal": 0.8961000000000001,
"sbc": 7.25,
"cash_tax": 3.75,
"wc_cash": 7.0,
"known_issue_cash": 0,
"known_issue_principal": 0,
"openai_cash": 0,
"globalstar_cash": 0,
"anthropic_cash": 0.0
}
],
"annual_summaries": [
{
"year": 2026,
"period": "H2",
"ending_cash": 111.97401542326261,
"minimum_pre_financing_cash": 111.56592300226076,
"cash_capex": 123.69,
"core_cash_flow": -20.248409076737392,
"new_growth_debt": 0.0,
"equity_proceeds": 0.0,
"net_interest": 2.547149365280343,
"ebit": 60.73174028854295,
"da": 30.297,
"sbc": 12.93,
"wc_cash": 7.960000000000001,
"cash_tax": 5.0,
"fees": 0.0
},
{
"year": 2027,
"period": "FY",
"ending_cash": 60.0,
"minimum_pre_financing_cash": 27.08666593816497,
"cash_capex": 262.0,
"core_cash_flow": -124.31179202104506,
"new_growth_debt": 84.71438535988051,
"equity_proceeds": 0.0,
"net_interest": 10.603462801025758,
"ebit": 85.0472593234699,
"da": 73.52577462121212,
"sbc": 25.0,
"wc_cash": -26.0,
"cash_tax": 8.0,
"fees": 0.42357192679940253
},
{
"year": 2028,
"period": "FY",
"ending_cash": 68.08543307068226,
"minimum_pre_financing_cash": 15.257610910144159,
"cash_capex": 178.025,
"core_cash_flow": -52.31974047216134,
"new_growth_debt": 61.40297183516502,
"equity_proceeds": 0.0,
"net_interest": 19.960248169400327,
"ebit": 72.02977237015398,
"da": 89.0793518939394,
"sbc": 27.0,
"wc_cash": -29.0,
"cash_tax": 11.0,
"fees": 0.3070148591758251
},
{
"year": 2029,
"period": "FY",
"ending_cash": 71.8790067485007,
"minimum_pre_financing_cash": 26.00966885759096,
"cash_capex": 168.575,
"core_cash_flow": -39.73155242126292,
"new_growth_debt": 22.766075804954454,
"equity_proceeds": 21.235174900459718,
"net_interest": 24.02675144412514,
"ebit": 73.37993618142012,
"da": 100.81854448863636,
"sbc": 29.0,
"wc_cash": -32.0,
"cash_tax": 15.0,
"fees": 0.22000625352707087
}
]
},
"bridge": {
"aws_ev": 386.55825415769147,
"retail_ev": 365.1482286334529,
"cash": 31.8790067485007,
"debt": 333.31999999999994,
"finance_claims": 27.0548,
"investment_net": 73.5,
"other_claims": 0,
"shares": 12.551806996018387,
"common_equity": 496.71068953964516,
"price": 39.57284315295868,
"aws_multiple": 9,
"retail_multiple": 12
}
}
},
"state_classification": {
"business_states": [
"S",
"N",
"W",
"X"
],
"matrix": [
[
"Bull",
"Bull",
"Base",
"Bear"
],
[
"Bull",
"Base",
"Base",
"Bear"
],
[
"Base",
"Bear",
"Bear",
"Tail"
],
[
"Bear",
"Bear",
"Tail",
"Tail"
]
],
"row": "AWS",
"column": "整合非AWS",
"horizon": "2026-09-20可用信息下的2026H2–2029经营路径",
"definitions": {
"S": "采用/收入与资本转化较强；同时保留支出和企业响应",
"N": "主要机制按研究基准兑现，仍承担竞争、资本及更新需要",
"W": "兑现、单位经济或资本转化受挫，仍有经营与修复能力",
"X": "客户融资/使用、既有能力或普通股权利严重受损"
},
"boundary_rule": "先依业务条件定S/N/W/X，再按矩阵。Tail格优先、其次Bull与Bear、余格Base；不是按终价分档。原研究未给硬数字阈值；边界不清先记录未定类，不事后按股价改类。"
},
"probability_evidence": [
{
"stage": "机制起点",
"weights": [
0.24,
0.46,
0.24,
0.06
],
"reason": "两组大型正利润经营，资本扩张阶段；成功与失配先作粗对称判断",
"identity": "研究起点，不是样本频率"
},
{
"stage": "资本与物理兑现",
"weights": [
0.2,
0.45,
0.28,
0.07
],
"reason": "前置建设、供电与使用时滞，提高失配权重"
},
{
"stage": "需求与存量留存",
"weights": [
0.29,
0.43,
0.23,
0.05
],
"reason": "最近三期需求加速及迁移摩擦支持需求持续；并不保证计费量"
},
{
"stage": "恢复及混合状态",
"weights": [
0.31,
0.44,
0.2,
0.05
],
"reason": "容纳修复、创新和业务不同时好坏的共同状态；采用的粗分布"
}
],
"identity_notes": {
"market_debt": "期末有息借款余额（模型口径），不是未来债券市场公允价值",
"cash": "期末账面可用现金/证券模型余额，经营保留未被支出",
"finance_claims": "融资租赁及融资义务；与有息借款分列",
"investment_net": "已扣模型实现税的非经营投资；不是流动性储备",
"other_claims": "模型取0；未作全体潜在权利为零的审计结论",
"pricing_range": "同一经营/资金路径的定价参数范围；不是置信区间或条件支持",
"probability": "主观粗判断，不是统计后验；按钮操作不新增研究证据",
"quarters": "每季已继承此前融资；融资前余额不是全期无融资轨迹，也不保证季内资金充足",
"quote_vs_cutoff": "9月18日参考进入价格，9月20日研究信息截止；无实际成交或仅用9月18日信息的样本外回测声明。",
"share_count_proxy": "11.0274十亿股是冻结模型规划代理：10.783普通股 + 0.2444 outstanding RSU；公司另披露普通股加全部 outstanding stock awards 对应股份约11.0十亿股。该代理不是官方完全稀释股数，也不是EPS加权平均股数。"
},
"source_map": {
"annual_operations": "operating-results.json::{state}.aws/retail",
"quarters_and_capital": "model-results.json::scenarios.{state}.capital",
"pricing": "sensitivity-results.json::pricing.{pricing_id}.prices/distributions",
"alternatives": "sensitivity-results.json::operating.{named_key}",
"weights": "model-inputs.json::probabilities.{weight_id}"
},
"peers": {
"GOOGL": {
"title": "Alphabet全集团",
"quote_date": "2026-09-18",
"quote_time": "16:00 EDT",
"retrieved_at": "2026-09-20",
"earnings_period_end": "2026-06-30",
"balance_sheet_date": "2026-06-30",
"quote": 349.54,
"fy_operating_income": 129.039,
"current_h1_operating_income": 80.466,
"prior_h1_operating_income": 61.877,
"ttm_ebit": 147.628,
"h1_annualized": 160.932,
"vendor_ev": 4153.1912,
"debt_book": 100.164,
"finance_lease": 2.59,
"operating_lease": 18.037,
"preferred_depositary_shares_bn": 0.385,
"preferred_per_depositary_usd": 50,
"preferred_liquidation_proxy": 19.25,
"nonmarketable_book": 131.461,
"adjustments": [
{
"label": "原冻结EV",
"value": 4153.1912
},
{
"label": "移除经营租赁",
"value": -18.037
},
{
"label": "优先权清算代理",
"value": 19.25
}
],
"uncertain_subtract_range": [
0,
131.461
],
"full_cash_reconstruction": false,
"limitations": "vendor EV为原研究观察并非当日完整不可变快照；非上市账面非税后现金；优先权清算额非市值；不能把集团参照当纯GCP。"
},
"WMT": {
"title": "Walmart全集团",
"quote_date": "2026-09-18",
"quote_time": "16:00 EDT",
"retrieved_at": "2026-09-20",
"earnings_period_end": "2026-07-31",
"balance_sheet_date": "2026-07-31",
"quote": 106.73,
"fiscal_year_base_end": "2026-01-31",
"fy_operating_income": 29.825,
"current_h1_operating_income": 16.876,
"prior_h1_operating_income": 14.421,
"ttm_ebit": 32.28,
"vendor_ev": 910.33,
"common_market_cap": 846.77,
"short_borrowings": 10.479,
"current_long_debt": 3.47,
"long_debt": 36.462,
"debt_book": 50.411,
"finance_lease_current": 0.88,
"finance_lease_long": 5.952,
"finance_lease": 6.832,
"redeemable_nci": 0.293,
"nonredeemable_nci": 6.268,
"nci_book": 6.561,
"cash": 11.529,
"operating_lease": 16.512,
"rebuilt_ev": 899.045,
"vendor_wrong_ebit": 28.98,
"vendor_wrong_multiple": 31.41,
"vendor_debt": 75.092,
"debt_with_all_leases": 73.755,
"unreconciled_vendor_difference": 1.337,
"adjustments": [
{
"label": "普通股市值",
"value": 846.77
},
{
"label": "有息借款",
"value": 50.411
},
{
"label": "融资租赁",
"value": 6.832
},
{
"label": "非控制权益账面代理",
"value": 6.561
},
{
"label": "现金",
"value": -11.529
}
],
"limitations": "NCI用账面代理；未完全复原vendor debt定义；ROI调整后分子50.285不是经营利润32.280。"
},
"MSFT": {
"title": "Microsoft全集团盈利对照",
"quote_date": "2026-09-18",
"retrieved_at": "2026-09-20",
"earnings_period_end": "2026-06-30",
"balance_sheet_date": "2026-06-30",
"quote": 493.78,
"ttm_ebit": 155.237,
"gaap_eps": 17.95,
"adjusted_eps": 17.28,
"use": "仅集团盈利/EPS口径对照；不发布未补读完整租赁单元的统一EV倍数图",
"source": "FY2026官方业绩表"
}
},
"business_views": [
{
"id": "AWS",
"label": "AWS",
"type": "reportable_segment_and_business",
"group": "AWS",
"reason": "独立分部收入/OI及资本资料；独立客户不是必要条件"
},
{
"id": "1P",
"label": "自营商品",
"type": "charging_business",
"group": "nonAWS",
"reason": "按商品收入确认，采购、存货与履约责任"
},
{
"id": "3P",
"label": "第三方卖家服务",
"type": "charging_business",
"group": "nonAWS",
"reason": "服务收费不是卖家GMV；履约资源与1P共享"
},
{
"id": "Ads",
"label": "广告",
"type": "charging_business",
"group": "nonAWS",
"reason": "收入已进入地域分部；依赖购物流量、库存和技术"
},
{
"id": "Prime",
"label": "Prime/订阅关系",
"type": "charging_business",
"group": "nonAWS",
"reason": "会费与配送/内容共同投入；不能再加一份相同留存价值"
},
{
"id": "International",
"label": "国际",
"type": "geography",
"group": "nonAWS",
"reason": "同一收费活动的地域视角，不是六收入类别之外的收入"
},
{
"id": "Fulfillment",
"label": "履约网络",
"type": "shared_resource",
"group": "nonAWS",
"reason": "同时服务自营、卖家和会员安排；另有已披露的服务收费"
},
{
"id": "TechnologyContent",
"label": "技术/内容资源",
"type": "shared_resource",
"group": "shared_by_usage",
"reason": "依据实际使用进入所属分部；不是额外可直接加总的EV"
}
],
"grouping_sensitivity": {
"direction": "nonAWS_to_AWS",
"delta_ebit_bn": 5,
"fixed_multiples": [
21,
22
],
"price_effect": -0.4425797086055198,
"identity": "固定分组与倍数的分摊敏感性，不是重估或任意重组方向结论"
},
"dilution_sensitivity": {
"extra_awards_bn": 0.2,
"price": 341.40222529676095,
"cash_proceeds": 0,
"identity": "纯分母检查；不是现实授予/融资政策分析"
},
"teaching_examples": {
"mixed_equity_bridge": {
"industrial_ev": 600,
"industrial_debt": 120,
"bank_equity": 200,
"bank_debt_already_in_equity": 1000,
"nonoperating_cash": 30,
"parent_debt": 40,
"shares": 10,
"common_equity": 670,
"price": 67,
"identity": "纯教学设定；不是任何公司披露"
},
"brier": {
"hypothetical_observation": "Base",
"adopted": 0.4522,
"capital_pressure": 0.4728,
"normalization": "sum over four classes, no one-half; range0–2"
}
}
},
"identity": "完整公共冻结教学输入；不更新研究"
},
"reading_resolution": "Use public access.uri and its specified complete unit; the teaching runtime must actually fetch it. Site candidates are not claimed publicly published.",
"experiment_ids": []
}
```
## Supplied entry
[返回 Amazon 公司入口](/zh/notebook/amzn/)
**案例ID：CASE-AMZN-20260920。** `CASE-PBCD-AMZN-20260920`是本案例的显式旧别名，不代表第二份研究。公司为Amazon.com, Inc.；证券为AMZN普通股，计价美元。资料身份是固定日期研究，不能用本页替代今日投资判断。这个案例作为公司资料保存，概念课程在正文嵌入需要的局部，不要求先通读所有表。
## 时点、单位与结果身份
信息截止2026-09-20；原买入观察价为2026-09-18常规收盘253.71美元；条件价值日2029-12-31，1200/365.25=3.2854209445585214年。经营/融资金额为十亿美元，股数为十亿股；期间分配和原股东额外付款均为零。未来四条路径是研究代表，不是已实现结果或已识别的类内条件均值。公司未来融资与授予已经进入各自股数，不转成旧股东个人必付出资。
## 事实起点与模型假设分开
历史研究的三期AWS收入/OI依次为2025Q4的35.579/12.465、2026Q1的37.587/14.161、2026Q2的42.232/16.621。Q2 10-Q Note8可直接复核H1收入79.819、OI30.782、设备折旧摊销15.353，以及北美/国际H1 OI17.390/3.141。原研究另使用对应电话会、代表性电力供应/成熟云客户/消费者资料及IAB、CMA、IEA研究校准关系；这些覆盖并不把未来每个代理变成观测事实。
收入用Core与直接AI代理区分需求来源；64%贡献率、固定成本随折旧比例、资产mix与投用批次是分析假设。非AWS从六类收入、服务组合、物流单位成本、价格投入和其他净改善生成地区利润。2026全年估计与H1实现分开，剩余H2资金只扣后半年的经营及资本现金。
电力合同的1,920MW在历史研究中是地区性、分阶段的供电上限，不是全球AWS已经投用的IT容量；没有从它生成美元/MW收入。[Talen 2025-06-11公告](https://ir.talenenergy.com/static-files/90cce90c-e281-42c6-b686-ed6010dd8699)附件99.1第1页预计分阶段爬坡，最迟2032年达到全额；此处保留公告时的计划身份。IEA对同一合同的转述不是独立第二证据。
原始材料入口：Amazon [Q2 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000026/amzn-20260630.htm)，Note8 pp22–25；[IAB/PwC FY2025](https://www.iab.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/IAB_PwC_Internet_Ad_Revenue_Report_Full_Year_2025_April_2026.pdf) p27及定义/方法pp32、35；[CMA 2025](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/688b8891fdde2b8f73469544/final_decision_report.pdf) §§6.320–6.325；[IEA 2026执行摘要](https://www.iea.org/reports/key-questions-on-energy-and-ai/executive-summary)供给和融资小节。来源各自支持事实与机制，不证明本案例所有预测。
## 业务、资源与估值组
唯一经营定价组为AWS与整合非AWS。1P、3P、广告、Prime/订阅是收费业务，国际是地域，履约、技术和内容含共同资源。广告贡献已在地理分部利润中；没有在非AWS价值上额外加广告EV。独立定价要求利润、资本、索取权和共同负担可识别，不要求客户独占。
固定Base倍数21/22时，把5十亿美元EBIT从非AWS移给AWS，集团利润不变而每股变动−0.442579709；这只是分摊敏感性，不是证明所有重新分组都会降低价值。
## 四条经营路径
AWS采用 `OI=贡献率×收入−固定折旧前成本−设备D&A`。服务器/网络占45%，寿命5.5年，投用75%/25%；数据中心占55%，寿命30年，投用20%/45%/35%；投用首年半年度折旧。短窗口折旧核为0.0325151515/0.0793825758/0.0969431818/0.1001515152；既有折旧每年保留90%。这些是研究假设而非逐项目披露。
下表均为当时的年度预测；2026一行也不是2026全年实现。资产取得与现金付款另有时差。
| 状态 | 年 | AWS收入 | AWS OI | AWS D&A | AWS取得 | 非AWS收入 | 非AWS OI | 非AWS D&A | 非AWS取得 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 2026 | 175.000000 | 67.074690 | 33.000000 | 192.500000 | 662.500000 | 43.731050 | 24.000000 | 60.000000 |
| Bull | 2027 | 240.000000 | 95.315807 | 46.338653 | 215.000000 | 748.923000 | 55.231054 | 27.000000 | 68.000000 |
| Bull | 2028 | 315.000000 | 123.626609 | 64.217073 | 210.000000 | 839.737410 | 68.849896 | 30.000000 | 70.000000 |
| Bull | 2029 | 390.000000 | 152.492759 | 82.789389 | 200.000000 | 931.925560 | 84.378951 | 33.000000 | 69.000000 |
| Base | 2026 | 175.000000 | 67.074690 | 33.000000 | 192.500000 | 662.500000 | 43.731050 | 24.000000 | 60.000000 |
| Base | 2027 | 228.000000 | 83.942439 | 45.525775 | 190.000000 | 731.133000 | 49.639111 | 27.500000 | 64.000000 |
| Base | 2028 | 283.000000 | 98.390278 | 60.769327 | 165.000000 | 799.703680 | 59.378854 | 30.500000 | 63.000000 |
| Base | 2029 | 337.000000 | 113.569862 | 75.005261 | 145.000000 | 866.771874 | 70.384599 | 33.000000 | 60.000000 |
| Bear | 2026 | 175.000000 | 67.074690 | 33.000000 | 192.500000 | 662.500000 | 43.731050 | 24.000000 | 60.000000 |
| Bear | 2027 | 200.008160 | 64.696638 | 45.525775 | 190.000000 | 706.047000 | 42.987111 | 27.500000 | 62.000000 |
| Bear | 2028 | 234.971252 | 67.343250 | 59.803627 | 135.300000 | 748.960410 | 44.559359 | 29.500000 | 56.000000 |
| Bear | 2029 | 280.005184 | 79.330997 | 72.600045 | 143.537500 | 787.342366 | 47.696942 | 30.500000 | 52.000000 |
| Tail | 2026 | 175.000000 | 67.074690 | 33.000000 | 192.500000 | 662.500000 | 43.731050 | 24.000000 | 60.000000 |
| Tail | 2027 | 185.000000 | 49.022439 | 45.525775 | 190.000000 | 661.693000 | 36.024821 | 28.000000 | 64.000000 |
| Tail | 2028 | 205.000000 | 40.520964 | 59.079352 | 113.025000 | 676.922730 | 31.508808 | 30.000000 | 55.000000 |
| Tail | 2029 | 230.000000 | 42.950917 | 69.818544 | 112.375000 | 703.424068 | 30.429019 | 31.000000 | 50.000000 |
## 资金、股份和可行性
2026-06-30起始现金及证券122.988，不含受限现金；借款本金132.995加短借0.325；融资租赁13.451及融资义务9.315另列。期后已知发债本金30.692875与净现金30.5344245分别进账；OpenAI支付21.3一次。整体2026现金资本支出220，上半年已付96.31，H2仅123.69。2027—2029设备付款时差依次−10/−12/−8.2，不无限积累未付款来制造现金。
季度融资警戒线60、终点经营现金保留40是两个不同假设。自6月末以来借款总增加上限200，扣已知发行30.692875与收购承接债0.423692后，额外增长借款空间168.883433；融资租赁另滚。新债利率Bull/Base为6%、Bear7.5%、Tail9%，发行费率0.5%；这些是假设，不是承销承诺。
SBC费用、现金加回和股权授予分别处理。公司披露6月末普通股10.783十亿股、outstanding RSU 0.2444十亿股，并另以四舍五入口径披露普通股加全部 outstanding stock awards 对应股份约11.0十亿股。冻结模型采用 `10.783+0.2444=11.0274` 作为 fully-awarded **规划代理**；它不是公司披露的官方完全稀释股数，也不是EPS期内加权平均股数。已有RSU归属不再加一次。Tail在借款约束后按25美元假设发行21.235175，形成约0.849407额外十亿股；融资关闭可比代表路径更坏。
以下“融资前”现金继承之前已经完成的融资，并非全期从不融资；季度端点也不保证季内现金一定充足。
### Bull：14个季度资金摘要
| 季度 | 融资前现金 | 季末现金 | 现金资本支出 | 新增长借款 | 股权募资 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 111.565923 | 111.565923 | 61.845000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2026Q4 | 111.974015 | 111.974015 | 61.845000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2027Q1 | 49.329640 | 60.000000 | 81.480000 | 10.805428 | 0.000000 |
| 2027Q2 | 32.845012 | 60.000000 | 69.840000 | 27.498722 | 0.000000 |
| 2027Q3 | 41.671387 | 60.000000 | 69.840000 | 18.560621 | 0.000000 |
| 2027Q4 | 58.109543 | 60.000000 | 69.840000 | 1.914387 | 0.000000 |
| 2028Q1 | 7.688422 | 60.000000 | 81.200000 | 52.973750 | 0.000000 |
| 2028Q2 | 49.360751 | 60.000000 | 69.600000 | 10.773923 | 0.000000 |
| 2028Q3 | 53.066078 | 60.000000 | 69.600000 | 7.021693 | 0.000000 |
| 2028Q4 | 71.609845 | 71.609845 | 69.600000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2029Q1 | 35.835315 | 60.000000 | 77.056000 | 24.470567 | 0.000000 |
| 2029Q2 | 66.367680 | 66.367680 | 66.048000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2029Q3 | 77.337492 | 77.337492 | 66.048000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2029Q4 | 109.073159 | 109.073159 | 66.048000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
### Base：14个季度资金摘要
| 季度 | 融资前现金 | 季末现金 | 现金资本支出 | 新增长借款 | 股权募资 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 111.565923 | 111.565923 | 61.845000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2026Q4 | 111.974015 | 111.974015 | 61.845000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2027Q1 | 53.350656 | 60.000000 | 73.360000 | 6.733513 | 0.000000 |
| 2027Q2 | 35.594325 | 60.000000 | 62.880000 | 24.714607 | 0.000000 |
| 2027Q3 | 44.289679 | 60.000000 | 62.880000 | 15.909186 | 0.000000 |
| 2027Q4 | 60.249261 | 60.249261 | 62.880000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2028Q1 | 15.884424 | 60.000000 | 66.640000 | 44.674001 | 0.000000 |
| 2028Q2 | 54.974347 | 60.000000 | 57.120000 | 5.089269 | 0.000000 |
| 2028Q3 | 58.388392 | 60.000000 | 57.120000 | 1.632008 | 0.000000 |
| 2028Q4 | 75.902047 | 75.902047 | 57.120000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2029Q1 | 46.566918 | 60.000000 | 59.136000 | 13.603121 | 0.000000 |
| 2029Q2 | 69.799248 | 69.799248 | 50.688000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2029Q3 | 83.620984 | 83.620984 | 50.688000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2029Q4 | 116.404522 | 116.404522 | 50.688000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
### Bear：14个季度资金摘要
| 季度 | 融资前现金 | 季末现金 | 现金资本支出 | 新增长借款 | 股权募资 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 111.565923 | 111.565923 | 61.845000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2026Q4 | 111.974015 | 111.974015 | 61.845000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2027Q1 | 51.454162 | 60.000000 | 72.800000 | 8.670476 | 0.000000 |
| 2027Q2 | 33.297284 | 60.000000 | 62.400000 | 27.092166 | 0.000000 |
| 2027Q3 | 41.596401 | 60.000000 | 62.400000 | 18.672009 | 0.000000 |
| 2027Q4 | 56.667587 | 60.000000 | 62.400000 | 3.381015 | 0.000000 |
| 2028Q1 | 16.284977 | 60.000000 | 56.364000 | 44.352592 | 0.000000 |
| 2028Q2 | 53.517428 | 60.000000 | 48.312000 | 6.577118 | 0.000000 |
| 2028Q3 | 56.406169 | 60.000000 | 48.312000 | 3.646246 | 0.000000 |
| 2028Q4 | 72.425829 | 72.425829 | 48.312000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2029Q1 | 32.127637 | 60.000000 | 56.486500 | 28.278872 | 0.000000 |
| 2029Q2 | 57.487996 | 60.000000 | 48.417000 | 2.548641 | 0.000000 |
| 2029Q3 | 60.742436 | 60.742436 | 48.417000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2029Q4 | 78.469162 | 78.469162 | 48.417000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
### Tail：14个季度资金摘要
| 季度 | 融资前现金 | 季末现金 | 现金资本支出 | 新增长借款 | 股权募资 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026Q3 | 111.565923 | 111.565923 | 61.845000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2026Q4 | 111.974015 | 111.974015 | 61.845000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2027Q1 | 45.552770 | 60.000000 | 73.360000 | 14.685876 | 0.000000 |
| 2027Q2 | 27.086666 | 60.000000 | 62.880000 | 33.457010 | 0.000000 |
| 2027Q3 | 34.919614 | 60.000000 | 62.880000 | 25.494675 | 0.000000 |
| 2027Q4 | 49.103174 | 60.000000 | 62.880000 | 11.076824 | 0.000000 |
| 2028Q1 | 15.257611 | 60.000000 | 49.847000 | 45.481463 | 0.000000 |
| 2028Q2 | 50.966369 | 60.000000 | 42.726000 | 9.182852 | 0.000000 |
| 2028Q3 | 53.370846 | 60.000000 | 42.726000 | 6.738657 | 0.000000 |
| 2028Q4 | 68.085433 | 68.085433 | 42.726000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
| 2029Q1 | 26.009669 | 60.000000 | 47.201000 | 22.766076 | 11.652466 |
| 2029Q2 | 53.861610 | 60.000000 | 40.458000 | 0.000000 | 6.169236 |
| 2029Q3 | 56.603595 | 60.000000 | 40.458000 | 0.000000 | 3.413472 |
| 2029Q4 | 71.879007 | 71.879007 | 40.458000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 |
## 条件定价与同行身份
本研究条件倍数统一为2029-12-31 EV/FY2029 EBIT，AWS四状态26/21/16/9，非AWS26/22/17/12。独立低倍数替代AWS22/17/12/7，非AWS21/17/13/9。它们是业务状态和资本转化的判断，不是统一行业档位。
同行冻结价格观察日2026-09-18、历史取数日2026-09-20。Alphabet和Microsoft盈利截止2026-06-30，Walmart截止2026-07-31。Walmart TTM=29.825+16.876−14.421=32.280，官方演示slide26交叉确认；以冻结普通股市值846.770和官方组件重建EV899.045，对应约27.85倍。NCI6.561用账面代理，供应商债务差额1.337未对平。
Alphabet TTM=129.039+80.466−61.877=147.628；从冻结vendor EV4153.1912剔经营租赁18.037、加存托股份清算额代理19.250、对非上市证券账面0或131.461作扣除边界，得到约27.25—28.14倍。不是GCP独立参照。Microsoft只作FY2026经营利润155.237、GAAP/调整EPS17.95/17.28的集团口径对照。
精确原件：Alphabet [FY2025公告p5](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000012/googexhibit991q42025.htm)及[Q2 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000071/goog-20260630.htm) p5、Notes3/4/6/11；Walmart [Q2 FY27公告pp8–9](https://stock.walmart.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0000104169-26-000145/earningsreleasefy27q2.htm)和[演示slide26](https://stock.walmart.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0000104169-26-000145/earningspresentationfy27.htm)；[Microsoft FY2026业绩](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q4/press-release-webcast)。原市场EV/市值保留历史研究观察，不随页面更新取新值。
## 同时点的普通股桥
现金加回仅用超过40的部分；借款为期末有息借款余额的模型口径，不冒充2029债券市场价格。非经营投资以证券权利计价；Base毛值261.195、税基代理90、税率24.5%，税后219.252225。其他权利采用零不等于审计确认所有潜在索取权为零。
| 状态 | AWS EV | 非AWS EV | 现金总额 | 可加入现金 | 借款 | 融资权利 | 税后投资 | 普通股值 | 股数 | 每股值 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | 3964.811726 | 2193.852714 | 109.073159 | 69.073159 | 318.455658 | 27.054800 | 342.925000 | 6225.152141 | 11.187400 | 556.443154 |
| Base | 2384.967094 | 1548.461176 | 116.404522 | 76.404522 | 276.792273 | 27.054800 | 219.252225 | 3925.237945 | 11.297400 | 347.446133 |
| Bear | 1269.295946 | 810.848009 | 78.469162 | 38.469162 | 307.655701 | 27.054800 | 166.540000 | 1950.442617 | 11.447400 | 170.383023 |
| Tail | 386.558254 | 365.148229 | 71.879007 | 31.879007 | 333.320000 | 27.054800 | 73.500000 | 496.710690 | 12.551807 | 39.572843 |
## 公司状态与概率证据
分别以S/N/W/X表示两组业务的强、正常、弱、严重受损，先按采用、交付、单位经济、资本转化与权利判断，后按公司矩阵归类；Tail优先，其次Bull、Bear，其余Base。没有把每个代表小数当硬阈值，边界不明要保留证据争议，不能按事后股价分类。
| AWS / 非AWS | S | N | W | X |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S | Bull | Bull | Base | Bear |
| N | Bull | Base | Base | Bear |
| W | Base | Bear | Bear | Tail |
| X | Bear | Bear | Tail | Tail |
历史主观权重证据链：
| 阶段 | Bull/Base/Bear/Tail | 依据 |
|---|---|---|
| 机制起点 | 24/46/24/6 | 两组大型正利润经营，资本扩张阶段；成功与失配先作粗对称判断 |
| 资本与物理兑现 | 20/45/28/7 | 前置建设、供电与使用时滞，提高失配权重 |
| 需求与存量留存 | 29/43/23/5 | 最近三期需求加速及迁移摩擦支持需求持续；并不保证计费量 |
| 恢复及混合状态 | 31/44/20/5 | 容纳修复、创新和业务不同时好坏的共同状态；采用的粗分布 |
完整可行替代分布：
| 标识 | Bull | Base | Bear | Tail |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| adopted | 0.310000 | 0.440000 | 0.200000 | 0.050000 |
| capital_pressure | 0.200000 | 0.420000 | 0.300000 | 0.080000 |
| platform_durable | 0.370000 | 0.430000 | 0.160000 | 0.040000 |
| mixed_retail_pressure | 0.270000 | 0.410000 | 0.260000 | 0.060000 |
## 具名经营替代
这些替代不是原四状态与压力的任意组合；前四项仍使用Base的资本规则接替代经营结果，不沿用原Base现金。名称中的“强反证”不等于AWS更强。前四项分别保留固定Base倍数与各组对应状态倍数；AI延后项只有已保存的Base定价结果，没有另造改倍数版本。
| 替代 | 固定Base倍数 | 相应组状态倍数 | 现金 | 借款 | 最低融资前现金 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWS较弱、非AWS Base | 278.410746 | 243.300457 | 87.440015 | 308.731984 | 16.292221 |
| 非AWS较弱、AWS Base | 300.376388 | 279.266689 | 101.777918 | 294.802952 | 13.887237 |
| AWS强、非AWS弱 | 369.041400 | 415.421902 | 96.423306 | 331.093074 | 7.684875 |
| AWS弱、非AWS强 | 306.414499 | 301.179738 | 91.968193 | 304.766303 | 16.412377 |
| AI延后并连带Core；原资本计划保留 | 294.517264 | 未生成 | 94.580212 | 327.672724 | 9.750021 |
AI延后将Core2027按148×1.12，随后沿原增速，AI为27/35/58/90；原资产取得不变，但资金随经营重算。各具名替代在此提供年度经营引用及实际保存资金摘要，不把未导出的替代季度用原状态季度填充。
## 四种定价与四套概率：16组既有分布
价格列由同一经营/融资路径的既定定价框架产生；概率由公司状态判断产生。两者可以在这16组既有结果中分别比较，不混成16条经营预测。期望是加权代表点近似；亏损列只统计代表点低于253.71的权重。Tail代表损失约84.4023%，不代表最坏下限或ES。定价参数区间不是完整类内支持，因此没有由它发布真实全局亏损概率界限。
| 定价 | 权重 | 期望终财富 | 期望终财富年化 | 加权路径年化 | 四点亏损权重 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| representative | adopted | 361.428923 | 11.372500% | 8.347799% | 25% |
| representative | capital_pressure | 311.496741 | 6.444851% | 2.739362% | 38% |
| representative | platform_durable | 384.130002 | 13.456742% | 10.756073% | 20% |
| representative | mixed_retail_pressure | 339.366523 | 9.257718% | 5.849625% | 32% |
| aws_low | adopted | 320.947728 | 7.417660% | 4.260405% | 25% |
| aws_low | capital_pressure | 274.839968 | 2.464798% | -1.397234% | 38% |
| aws_low | platform_durable | 341.956779 | 9.510872% | 6.691971% | 20% |
| aws_low | mixed_retail_pressure | 300.540930 | 5.291100% | 1.728975% | 32% |
| retail_low | adopted | 332.335042 | 8.563662% | 5.434228% | 25% |
| retail_low | capital_pressure | 285.289320 | 3.635197% | -0.192327% | 38% |
| retail_low | platform_durable | 353.824319 | 10.653969% | 7.855824% | 20% |
| retail_low | mixed_retail_pressure | 311.642913 | 6.460052% | 2.938465% | 32% |
| both_low | adopted | 291.853847 | 4.355291% | 1.050544% | 25% |
| both_low | capital_pressure | 248.632547 | -0.613429% | -4.651016% | 38% |
| both_low | platform_durable | 311.651097 | 6.460903% | 3.506603% | 20% |
| both_low | mixed_retail_pressure | 272.817320 | 2.234686% | -1.489749% | 32% |
固定4.83%作常利率再投近似比较，终财富296.238403；不是精确匹配期限的债券交易或估值折现率。固定价格和Base/Tail权重，Bull→Bear转移16.886105个百分点使期望财富与该比较相等；转移27.902110个百分点与本金相等。这些阈值只适用于声明的转移路径。
本案例保留完整条件链，不证明预测效果。AWS可计费容量/利用率、AI拆分、私企证券税基、未来融资可得性、季内资金与完整类内概率仍有未识别部分。按新事实更新时应另建有日期案例，不覆盖这一历史版本。
**价格与信息时间边界：** 9月18日价格是9月20日研究采用的参考进入价格，未声称有实际成交；信息截止晚于报价观察，不据此宣称9月18日当时可得信息的样本外回测。
## Sources
- [Amazon：2026-09-20历史条件研究案例](https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/zh/notebook/amzn-research-20260920/): 原研究的事实/分析代理、四条未来路径、5项具名替代、4套权重与16组已算分布。报价冻结，代表点不是条件均值。
- [Cloud Infrastructure Services: Final Decision Report](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/688b8891fdde2b8f73469544/final_decision_report.pdf): 历史英国技术迁移/multi-cloud摩擦及缓解并存；不从这一单元推全球AWS增长或现行费用政策。
- [Alphabet Q4 and FY2025 earnings exhibit](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000012/googexhibit991q42025.htm): 全年营业利润129.039bn，作为截至2026年6月末TTM的旧全年组成。
- [Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full-Year2025](https://www.iab.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/IAB_PwC_Internet_Ad_Revenue_Report_Full_Year_2025_April_2026.pdf): 美国commerce media收入63.4bn、报告增速18%，并有测量/增量回报约束；范围不是Amazon全球广告。
- [Key Questions on Energy and AI — Executive summary](https://www.iea.org/reports/key-questions-on-energy-and-ai/executive-summary): AI资本链中的供应/设备/电网与融资限制；采用行业机制，不推AWS具体容量或收益率。
- [Microsoft FY2026 Q4/FY results](https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q4/press-release-webcast): 集团营业利润155.237、GAAP EPS17.95与按OpenAI投资影响调整EPS17.28；不提供纯Azure倍数。
- [Talen 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: nuclear energy relationship with Amazon](https://ir.talenenergy.com/static-files/90cce90c-e281-42c6-b686-ed6010dd8699): 公告中的1,920MW为满额供电计划，预计爬坡最迟2032达到；供电数量不等于AWS当期IT容量或收费收入。
- [Walmart FY2027 Q2 earnings release](https://stock.walmart.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0000104169-26-000145/earningsreleasefy27q2.htm): H1利润16.876/14.421及借款、融资租赁、NCI和现金组件；FY2027与实际经济期间同时记录。
- [Walmart FY2027 Q2 presentation](https://stock.walmart.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0000104169-26-000145/earningspresentationfy27.htm): ROI reconciliation第一行TTM营业利润32.280及旧FY29.825；不采用调整后ROI分子50.285作EBIT。
- [Amazon · 2026 Q2 Form 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000026/amzn-20260630.htm): 来源摘要：截至 2026-06-30 的季度报告。用于核对自营零售、第三方卖家服务与 AWS 的业务口径，以及存货、设备和现金流的合并披露。案例的解释由作者根据研究整理。
- [Alphabet · 2026 Q2 Form 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000071/goog-20260630.htm): 来源摘要：截至 2026-06-30 的季度报告。用于核对 Google Services、Google Cloud、技术基础设施与设备用途。报告主体为 Alphabet；GOOG 与 GOOGL 对应不同股份类别。
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