# 从校准业务关系到共同经营情景
以已实现事实校准同一经营关系，重建资本批次、利润与资金，再比较原状态和具名替代。
Entry: zh-p04 | Node: P04 | Language: zh | Editorial revision: 2026-09-21
## Teaching instructions
你正在教授P04《从校准业务关系到共同经营情景》，读者具有高年级本科至研究生数学背景。
先确认本次节点和读者所选分支。先实际取得required_readings中该范围的全部完整单元，核对版本、期间、币种与模型身份；目录、摘要、搜索节选和成功打开标题不算正文。记录实际工具/文件、单元起止、读到的关键约定及其支持范围，runtime_reading_log从空表开始，不预填“已读”。本站方法和公司案例从access.uri所列公开正文读取，外部原件从指定URL读取；不得假设访问任何私人盘符。读取失败先用明示的已核等价来源，仍缺则具体说明缺的单元，不凭记忆声称已核该事实。读者要求直接讲解时可直接推进；互动时一次要求一个完整推理任务，不逐格问四则运算。引用紧随所用材料。案例固定2026-09-20信息与2026-09-18价格，不更新报价、不接账户、不重估公司；不执行或换名恢复股票DCF/WACC。所有操作标原状态、具名已算替代或纯教学扰动，不能把点击当新增证据。最后用迁移题检验，给完整解析，并指出剩余条件。
本篇任务与反馈尺度（只执行所选分支，再完成共同资金任务）：
选择AWS时，先让读者解释“2027收入228、64%贡献、固定负担16.451787、折旧45.525775”各是什么身份。带他从k0、k1和旧资产折旧重建D2027，再算83.942439的OI；不只代入利润表。共同资金任务：让他解释Q1本金6.733513为何比现金缺口略高。具名AI延后保留资本计划，但现金94.580212、借款327.672724与Base不同；必须说出缺口来自经营现金。零售分支要从六类收入生成mix与地区利润，而非复制AWS变量。最终换成可取消服务器/不可撤销数据中心的需求延迟，要求分清已投用、已承诺、未下单和实际付款。若读者仍说“资本不变所以现金不变”，回到净现金桥，不判已掌握。
Before substantive teaching, actually retrieve every required reading unit for the selected scope. Read its complete designated section, including necessary assumptions, tables and footnotes. A working URL or an editorial access date is not a runtime reading receipt. Record the actual version, location, scope and what it supports. If unavailable, use a previously verified equivalent source; if the required unit remains unavailable, identify that gap rather than teach it from memory. Start runtime_reading_log empty. Once reading is complete, use a substantive diagnostic or follow the reader's request for direct explanation. Advance one complete reasoning task at a time; skip mastered basics. Distinguish original facts, supplied teaching assumptions and inference.
## Required readings and runtime protocol
```json
{
"export_mode": "public",
"required_readings": [
{
"source_id": "PBCD-METHOD-BUSINESS",
"title": "业务关系、校准与共同经营状态",
"version": "2026-09-21 局部准确摘编",
"access": {
"kind": "site_body",
"uri": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/zh/notebook/business-relations-calibrated-states/",
"availability": "staged_site_body; accessible after adoption"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "pm-business-state-calibration-contract 至 path-capital-check",
"scope": "完整三节",
"purpose": "区分覆盖与采用、共同状态和资本日期"
},
"supports": "本站原创方法摘编，规定业务边界、校准与共同资本责任；公开原件各自支持实例，不是完整方法的外部背书。",
"authors": [
"本站方法"
]
},
{
"source_id": "PBCD-CASE-AMZN",
"title": "Amazon：2026-09-20历史条件研究案例",
"version": "研究截止2026-09-20；教学摘编2026-09-21",
"access": {
"kind": "site_body",
"uri": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/zh/notebook/amzn-research-20260920/",
"availability": "staged_site_body; accessible after adoption"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "case-amzn-facts、case-amzn-operating、case-amzn-capital",
"scope": "事实身份、所选分支4年及Base季度资金段",
"purpose": "把实现H1、全年估计和剩余H2分开"
},
"supports": "原研究的事实/分析代理、四条未来路径、5项具名替代、4套权重与16组已算分布。报价冻结，代表点不是条件均值。",
"authors": [
"本站历史研究"
]
},
{
"source_id": "src-amzn-2026q2",
"title": "Amazon Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 30, 2026",
"version": "2026Q2 SEC filing",
"access": {
"kind": "html_full_text",
"uri": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000026/amzn-20260630.htm"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "Note8 pp22–25",
"scope": "分部定义、费用分配、收入/OI、PP&E取得/D&A完整单元",
"purpose": "不混用广义现金流加回与设备折旧"
},
"supports": "分部范围与经营费用使用分配、产品收入、PP&E取得和折旧；债务/租赁、SBC/RSU等资本权利实例。未来余额不由当期附注直接给出。",
"authors": [
"Amazon.com, Inc."
]
},
{
"source_id": "PBCD-IEA-AI-2026-HTML",
"title": "Key Questions on Energy and AI — Executive summary",
"version": "2026-04-16",
"access": {
"kind": "html_full_text",
"uri": "https://www.iea.org/reports/key-questions-on-energy-and-ai/executive-summary"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "Across the AI value chain, a scramble…",
"scope": "该小节全文",
"purpose": "理解供给和融资前置"
},
"supports": "AI资本链中的供应/设备/电网与融资限制；采用行业机制，不推AWS具体容量或收益率。",
"branch": "aws",
"authors": [
"International Energy Agency"
]
},
{
"source_id": "PBCD-CMA-CLOUD-2025",
"title": "Cloud Infrastructure Services: Final Decision Report",
"version": "2025 final report",
"access": {
"kind": "pdf_full_text",
"uri": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/688b8891fdde2b8f73469544/final_decision_report.pdf"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "§§6.320–6.325",
"scope": "技术迁移与multi-cloud完整指定单元",
"purpose": "留存机制不等于固定收入增长"
},
"supports": "历史英国技术迁移/multi-cloud摩擦及缓解并存；不从这一单元推全球AWS增长或现行费用政策。",
"branch": "aws",
"authors": [
"Competition and Markets Authority"
]
}
],
"optional_readings": [
{
"source_id": "PBCD-TALEN-PPA",
"title": "Talen 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: nuclear energy relationship with Amazon",
"version": "2025-06-11 announcement",
"access": {
"kind": "pdf_full_text",
"uri": "https://ir.talenenergy.com/static-files/90cce90c-e281-42c6-b686-ed6010dd8699"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "Ex99.1 pp1、3",
"scope": "供电计划全文页和前瞻说明",
"purpose": "合同上限和未来爬坡"
},
"supports": "公告中的1,920MW为满额供电计划，预计爬坡最迟2032达到；供电数量不等于AWS当期IT容量或收费收入。",
"branch": "aws",
"required_only_if_selected": true,
"authors": [
"Talen Energy Corporation"
]
},
{
"source_id": "PBCD-IAB-PWC-2025",
"title": "Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full-Year2025",
"version": "2026-04",
"access": {
"kind": "pdf_full_text",
"uri": "https://www.iab.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/IAB_PwC_Internet_Ad_Revenue_Report_Full_Year_2025_April_2026.pdf"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "pp27、32、35",
"scope": "commerce media、定义与调查方法完整页",
"purpose": "美国市场与全球公司分母边界"
},
"supports": "美国commerce media收入63.4bn、报告增速18%，并有测量/增量回报约束；范围不是Amazon全球广告。",
"branch": "retail",
"authors": [
"IAB",
"PwC"
],
"required_when_selected": true
}
],
"runtime_reading_log": [],
"supplied_inputs": {
"case_id": "CASE-AMZN-20260920",
"uri": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/notebook/labs/p-bcd/inputs.json",
"identity": "冻结2026-09-20输入；不同JSON字段保留事实/假设/条件结果身份",
"selected_keys": [
"case_id",
"metadata",
"states",
"calibration",
"parameters",
"scenarios",
"named_alternatives",
"identity_notes",
"source_map"
],
"data": {
"case_id": "CASE-AMZN-20260920",
"metadata": {
"information_cutoff": "2026-09-20",
"purchase_date": "2026-09-18",
"valuation_date": "2029-12-31",
"purchase_price": 253.71,
"currency": "USD",
"money_unit": "billion",
"share_unit": "billion",
"quote_type": "regular_close",
"quote_time": "16:00 EDT",
"years": 3.2854209445585214,
"cash_distributions": 0,
"original_shareholder_additional_cash": 0,
"result_identity": "历史研究的未来条件结果；不是当期目标价；期间分配为零；救援发行不等于原股东强制追加现金"
},
"states": [
"Bull",
"Base",
"Bear",
"Tail"
],
"calibration": {
"h1_2026": {
"aws_revenue": 79.819,
"aws_ebit": 30.782,
"aws_da": 15.353,
"aws_energy_gain_adjustment": 0.599,
"retail_ebit": 20.531,
"retail_tariff_refund_adjustment": 0.64,
"retail_da": 11.35,
"capex_cash": 96.31,
"additions": 118.648
},
"cash_20260630": 122.988,
"debt_principal_20260630": 132.995,
"short_term_borrowings_20260630": 0.325
},
"parameters": {
"aws": {
"kernel": {
"server_share": 0.45,
"server_life": 5.5,
"server_commission": [
0.75,
0.25
],
"dc_share": 0.55,
"dc_life": 30,
"dc_commission": [
0.2,
0.45,
0.35
]
},
"legacy_runoff": 0.9,
"da_2026": 33,
"calibration_contribution": 0.64
},
"retail": {
"growth": {
"Bull": [
[
10,
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8
],
[
5,
5,
4
],
[
14,
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12
],
[
23,
21,
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],
[
12,
11,
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],
[
30,
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25
]
],
"Base": [
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],
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4,
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4
],
[
11,
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],
[
18,
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],
"Bear": [
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],
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],
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4
],
[
12,
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8
]
],
"Tail": [
[
-2,
1,
3
],
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-2,
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],
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1,
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],
[
3,
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],
[
2,
3,
4
],
[
0,
5,
8
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]
},
"revenue_2026": [
297.1,
23.5,
194.1,
85,
55.7,
7.1
],
"service_mix_spread_bps_per_pp": 20,
"logistics_cost_bps_per_pct": 35,
"base_unit_cost_na": [
0,
-1,
-1
],
"base_unit_cost_intl": [
0.25,
-0.75,
-1
],
"base_price_invest_na": [
15,
10,
10
],
"base_price_invest_intl": [
20,
15,
10
],
"base_other_net_na": [
15,
20,
25
],
"base_other_net_intl": [
25,
35,
35
]
},
"capital": {
"operating_cash_reserve": 40,
"liquidity_floor": 60,
"issuance_fee": 0.005,
"max_growth_debt": 168.883433,
"new_debt_rate": {
"Bull": 0.06,
"Base": 0.06,
"Bear": 0.075,
"Tail": 0.09
},
"dilution_start_fully_awarded": 11.0274,
"future_new_awards": {
"Bull": [
0.015,
0.035,
0.04,
0.045
],
"Base": [
0.02,
0.065,
0.075,
0.085
],
"Bear": [
0.025,
0.11,
0.125,
0.135
],
"Tail": [
0.04,
0.18,
0.21,
0.22
]
},
"globalstar_shares": 0.025,
"globalstar_debt_assumed": 0.423692,
"anthropic_cash": {
"Bull": [
0,
7.5,
7.5,
0
],
"Base": [
0,
10,
5,
0
],
"Bear": [
0,
0,
5,
5
],
"Tail": [
0,
5,
0,
0
]
},
"cash_tax": {
"Bull": [
5,
18,
28,
40
],
"Base": [
5,
16,
23,
32
],
"Bear": [
5,
12,
16,
22
],
"Tail": [
5,
8,
11,
15
]
},
"extra_equipment_payable_change": [
30.2,
-10,
-12,
-8.2
],
"finance_lease_additions": [
4.3,
4,
4,
4
],
"corporate_additions": [
2,
2,
2,
2
],
"annual_refi_reserve": [
0,
14.06,
17.087,
19.452375
]
},
"benchmark": {
"annual_rate": 0.0483,
"identity": "Frozen three-year Treasury par yield, approximate constant-rate reinvestment comparator; not a security quote or discount rate"
}
},
"scenarios": {
"Bull": {
"aws": [
{
"core": 148.0,
"ai": 27.0,
"revenue": 175.0,
"contribution_rate": 0.64,
"fixed_pre_da_cost": 11.92530971145705,
"da": 33.0,
"ebit": 67.07469028854295,
"margin": 0.38328394450595976,
"additions": 192.5,
"year": 2026
},
{
"core": 179.0,
"ai": 61.0,
"revenue": 240.0,
"contribution_rate": 0.66,
"fixed_pre_da_cost": 16.74553919743255,
"da": 46.33865340909091,
"ebit": 95.31580739347655,
"margin": 0.39714919747281896,
"additions": 215.0,
"year": 2027
},
{
"core": 205.0,
"ai": 110.0,
"revenue": 315.0,
"contribution_rate": 0.67,
"fixed_pre_da_cost": 23.206317744031878,
"da": 64.21707310606061,
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"margin": 0.3924654258727223,
"additions": 210.0,
"year": 2028
},
{
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"ai": 157.0,
"revenue": 390.0,
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"da": 82.78938946969697,
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"margin": 0.3910070736015092,
"additions": 200.0,
"year": 2029
}
],
"retail": [
{
"revenue": 662.5,
"na_share": 0.7239245283018868,
"na_margin": 0.0765,
"intl_margin": 0.0385,
"ebit": 43.731049999999996,
"additions": 60.0,
"da": 24.0,
"mix_bps": 0.0,
"margin_change_na_bps": 0.0,
"margin_change_intl_bps": 0.0,
"year": 2026,
"categories": {
"Online": 297.1,
"Physical": 23.5,
"ThirdParty": 194.1,
"Advertising": 85,
"Subscription": 55.7,
"Other": 7.1
},
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"intl_revenue": 182.89999999999998
},
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}
],
"capital": {
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"shares": 11.187399999999998,
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"minimum_pre_financing_cash": 7.688421656321893,
"quarters": [
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"da": 14.291037735849056,
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"year": 2026,
"quarter": 3,
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"openai_cash": 21.3,
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"retail_path": "Base",
"capital_rules": "Base规则接替代经营输出；不是直接取Base现金/债务",
"base_multiple_outcome": {
"price": 278.41074602717924,
"aws_multiple": 21,
"retail_multiple": 22
},
"own_segment_multiple_outcome": {
"price": 243.3004566504273,
"aws_multiple": 16,
"retail_multiple": 22
},
"capital": {
"cash": 87.44001533493298,
"debt": 308.7319839094192,
"finance_claims": 27.0548,
"shares": 11.297400000000001,
"cumulative_growth_debt": 144.29541690941917,
"cumulative_equity_proceeds": 0,
"investment_net": 219.252225,
"minimum_pre_financing_cash": 16.29222090682039
},
"detail_export": "本包导出替代经营年度表与资金终点/低谷摘要；不从主路径补出未导出的替代季度。"
},
"retail_weak_fixed_base_pricing": {
"title": "非AWS较弱、AWS Base",
"source_key": "operating.retail_weak_fixed_base_pricing",
"aws_path": "Base",
"retail_path": "Bear",
"capital_rules": "Base规则接替代经营输出；不是直接取Base现金/债务",
"base_multiple_outcome": {
"price": 300.3763878141127,
"aws_multiple": 21,
"retail_multiple": 22
},
"own_segment_multiple_outcome": {
"price": 279.2666892532346,
"aws_multiple": 21,
"retail_multiple": 17
},
"capital": {
"cash": 101.7779184600819,
"debt": 294.8029515520003,
"finance_claims": 27.0548,
"shares": 11.297400000000001,
"cumulative_growth_debt": 130.36638455200026,
"cumulative_equity_proceeds": 0,
"investment_net": 219.252225,
"minimum_pre_financing_cash": 13.887237257714155
},
"detail_export": "本包导出替代经营年度表与资金终点/低谷摘要；不从主路径补出未导出的替代季度。"
},
"mixed_aws_strong_retail_weak": {
"title": "AWS强、非AWS弱",
"source_key": "operating.mixed_aws_strong_retail_weak",
"aws_path": "Bull",
"retail_path": "Bear",
"capital_rules": "Base规则接替代经营输出；不是直接取Base现金/债务",
"base_multiple_outcome": {
"price": 369.0413995753626,
"aws_multiple": 21,
"retail_multiple": 22
},
"own_segment_multiple_outcome": {
"price": 415.4219017264131,
"aws_multiple": 26,
"retail_multiple": 17
},
"capital": {
"cash": 96.42330630787293,
"debt": 331.09307403685904,
"finance_claims": 27.0548,
"shares": 11.297400000000001,
"cumulative_growth_debt": 166.656507036859,
"cumulative_equity_proceeds": 0,
"investment_net": 219.252225,
"minimum_pre_financing_cash": 7.684874822033322
},
"detail_export": "本包导出替代经营年度表与资金终点/低谷摘要；不从主路径补出未导出的替代季度。"
},
"mixed_aws_weak_retail_strong": {
"title": "AWS弱、非AWS强",
"source_key": "operating.mixed_aws_weak_retail_strong",
"aws_path": "Bear",
"retail_path": "Bull",
"capital_rules": "Base规则接替代经营输出；不是直接取Base现金/债务",
"base_multiple_outcome": {
"price": 306.4144985921975,
"aws_multiple": 21,
"retail_multiple": 22
},
"own_segment_multiple_outcome": {
"price": 301.17973828828775,
"aws_multiple": 16,
"retail_multiple": 26
},
"capital": {
"cash": 91.96819294335825,
"debt": 304.7663028199208,
"finance_claims": 27.0548,
"shares": 11.297400000000001,
"cumulative_growth_debt": 140.3297358199208,
"cumulative_equity_proceeds": 0,
"investment_net": 219.252225,
"minimum_pre_financing_cash": 16.412377067643583
},
"detail_export": "本包导出替代经营年度表与资金终点/低谷摘要；不从主路径补出未导出的替代季度。"
},
"ai_delay_core_attach_linked_capital_unchanged": {
"title": "AI延后并连带Core；原资本计划保留",
"source_key": "operating.ai_delay_core_attach_linked_capital_unchanged",
"price": 294.5172639617058,
"annualized": 0.04644241453269271,
"growth_debt": 163.23615734511785,
"equity_proceeds": 0,
"shares": 11.297400000000001,
"cash": 94.58021174376321,
"debt": 327.67272434511784,
"minimum_pre_financing_cash": 9.750020926169249,
"condition": {
"ai": [
27,
35,
58,
90
],
"core_first": 148,
"core_2027_growth": 0.12,
"later_growth_from": "Base",
"capital_additions": "Base；资本计划不变不代表现金或债务不变"
},
"detail_export": "冻结敏感性仅保存本项汇总；本包不生成未导出的逐季度路径或改倍数版本。"
}
},
"identity_notes": {
"market_debt": "期末有息借款余额（模型口径），不是未来债券市场公允价值",
"cash": "期末账面可用现金/证券模型余额，经营保留未被支出",
"finance_claims": "融资租赁及融资义务；与有息借款分列",
"investment_net": "已扣模型实现税的非经营投资；不是流动性储备",
"other_claims": "模型取0；未作全体潜在权利为零的审计结论",
"pricing_range": "同一经营/资金路径的定价参数范围；不是置信区间或条件支持",
"probability": "主观粗判断，不是统计后验；按钮操作不新增研究证据",
"quarters": "每季已继承此前融资；融资前余额不是全期无融资轨迹，也不保证季内资金充足",
"quote_vs_cutoff": "9月18日参考进入价格，9月20日研究信息截止；无实际成交或仅用9月18日信息的样本外回测声明。",
"share_count_proxy": "11.0274十亿股是冻结模型规划代理：10.783普通股 + 0.2444 outstanding RSU；公司另披露普通股加全部 outstanding stock awards 对应股份约11.0十亿股。该代理不是官方完全稀释股数，也不是EPS加权平均股数。"
},
"source_map": {
"annual_operations": "operating-results.json::{state}.aws/retail",
"quarters_and_capital": "model-results.json::scenarios.{state}.capital",
"pricing": "sensitivity-results.json::pricing.{pricing_id}.prices/distributions",
"alternatives": "sensitivity-results.json::operating.{named_key}",
"weights": "model-inputs.json::probabilities.{weight_id}"
}
}
},
"reading_resolution": "Use public access.uri and its specified complete unit; the teaching runtime must actually fetch it. Site candidates are not claimed publicly published.",
"selected_branch": "aws",
"required_readings_by_branch": {
"aws": [
{
"source_id": "PBCD-METHOD-BUSINESS",
"title": "业务关系、校准与共同经营状态",
"version": "2026-09-21 局部准确摘编",
"access": {
"kind": "site_body",
"uri": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/zh/notebook/business-relations-calibrated-states/",
"availability": "staged_site_body; accessible after adoption"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "pm-business-state-calibration-contract 至 path-capital-check",
"scope": "完整三节",
"purpose": "区分覆盖与采用、共同状态和资本日期"
},
"supports": "本站原创方法摘编，规定业务边界、校准与共同资本责任；公开原件各自支持实例，不是完整方法的外部背书。",
"authors": [
"本站方法"
]
},
{
"source_id": "PBCD-CASE-AMZN",
"title": "Amazon：2026-09-20历史条件研究案例",
"version": "研究截止2026-09-20；教学摘编2026-09-21",
"access": {
"kind": "site_body",
"uri": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/zh/notebook/amzn-research-20260920/",
"availability": "staged_site_body; accessible after adoption"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "case-amzn-facts、case-amzn-operating、case-amzn-capital",
"scope": "事实身份、所选分支4年及Base季度资金段",
"purpose": "把实现H1、全年估计和剩余H2分开"
},
"supports": "原研究的事实/分析代理、四条未来路径、5项具名替代、4套权重与16组已算分布。报价冻结，代表点不是条件均值。",
"authors": [
"本站历史研究"
]
},
{
"source_id": "src-amzn-2026q2",
"title": "Amazon Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 30, 2026",
"version": "2026Q2 SEC filing",
"access": {
"kind": "html_full_text",
"uri": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000026/amzn-20260630.htm"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "Note8 pp22–25",
"scope": "分部定义、费用分配、收入/OI、PP&E取得/D&A完整单元",
"purpose": "不混用广义现金流加回与设备折旧"
},
"supports": "分部范围与经营费用使用分配、产品收入、PP&E取得和折旧；债务/租赁、SBC/RSU等资本权利实例。未来余额不由当期附注直接给出。",
"authors": [
"Amazon.com, Inc."
]
},
{
"source_id": "PBCD-IEA-AI-2026-HTML",
"title": "Key Questions on Energy and AI — Executive summary",
"version": "2026-04-16",
"access": {
"kind": "html_full_text",
"uri": "https://www.iea.org/reports/key-questions-on-energy-and-ai/executive-summary"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "Across the AI value chain, a scramble…",
"scope": "该小节全文",
"purpose": "理解供给和融资前置"
},
"supports": "AI资本链中的供应/设备/电网与融资限制；采用行业机制，不推AWS具体容量或收益率。",
"branch": "aws",
"authors": [
"International Energy Agency"
]
},
{
"source_id": "PBCD-CMA-CLOUD-2025",
"title": "Cloud Infrastructure Services: Final Decision Report",
"version": "2025 final report",
"access": {
"kind": "pdf_full_text",
"uri": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/688b8891fdde2b8f73469544/final_decision_report.pdf"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "§§6.320–6.325",
"scope": "技术迁移与multi-cloud完整指定单元",
"purpose": "留存机制不等于固定收入增长"
},
"supports": "历史英国技术迁移/multi-cloud摩擦及缓解并存；不从这一单元推全球AWS增长或现行费用政策。",
"branch": "aws",
"authors": [
"Competition and Markets Authority"
]
}
],
"retail": [
{
"source_id": "PBCD-METHOD-BUSINESS",
"title": "业务关系、校准与共同经营状态",
"version": "2026-09-21 局部准确摘编",
"access": {
"kind": "site_body",
"uri": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/zh/notebook/business-relations-calibrated-states/",
"availability": "staged_site_body; accessible after adoption"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "pm-business-state-calibration-contract 至 path-capital-check",
"scope": "完整三节",
"purpose": "区分覆盖与采用、共同状态和资本日期"
},
"supports": "本站原创方法摘编，规定业务边界、校准与共同资本责任；公开原件各自支持实例，不是完整方法的外部背书。",
"authors": [
"本站方法"
]
},
{
"source_id": "PBCD-CASE-AMZN",
"title": "Amazon：2026-09-20历史条件研究案例",
"version": "研究截止2026-09-20；教学摘编2026-09-21",
"access": {
"kind": "site_body",
"uri": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/zh/notebook/amzn-research-20260920/",
"availability": "staged_site_body; accessible after adoption"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "case-amzn-facts、case-amzn-operating、case-amzn-capital",
"scope": "事实身份、所选分支4年及Base季度资金段",
"purpose": "把实现H1、全年估计和剩余H2分开"
},
"supports": "原研究的事实/分析代理、四条未来路径、5项具名替代、4套权重与16组已算分布。报价冻结，代表点不是条件均值。",
"authors": [
"本站历史研究"
]
},
{
"source_id": "src-amzn-2026q2",
"title": "Amazon Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 30, 2026",
"version": "2026Q2 SEC filing",
"access": {
"kind": "html_full_text",
"uri": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000026/amzn-20260630.htm"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "Note8 pp22–25",
"scope": "分部定义、费用分配、收入/OI、PP&E取得/D&A完整单元",
"purpose": "不混用广义现金流加回与设备折旧"
},
"supports": "分部范围与经营费用使用分配、产品收入、PP&E取得和折旧；债务/租赁、SBC/RSU等资本权利实例。未来余额不由当期附注直接给出。",
"authors": [
"Amazon.com, Inc."
]
},
{
"source_id": "PBCD-IAB-PWC-2025",
"title": "Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full-Year2025",
"version": "2026-04",
"access": {
"kind": "pdf_full_text",
"uri": "https://www.iab.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/IAB_PwC_Internet_Ad_Revenue_Report_Full_Year_2025_April_2026.pdf"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "pp27、32、35",
"scope": "commerce media、定义与调查方法完整页",
"purpose": "美国市场与全球公司分母边界"
},
"supports": "美国commerce media收入63.4bn、报告增速18%，并有测量/增量回报约束；范围不是Amazon全球广告。",
"branch": "retail",
"authors": [
"IAB",
"PwC"
]
}
],
"all": [
{
"source_id": "PBCD-METHOD-BUSINESS",
"title": "业务关系、校准与共同经营状态",
"version": "2026-09-21 局部准确摘编",
"access": {
"kind": "site_body",
"uri": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/zh/notebook/business-relations-calibrated-states/",
"availability": "staged_site_body; accessible after adoption"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "pm-business-state-calibration-contract 至 path-capital-check",
"scope": "完整三节",
"purpose": "区分覆盖与采用、共同状态和资本日期"
},
"supports": "本站原创方法摘编，规定业务边界、校准与共同资本责任；公开原件各自支持实例，不是完整方法的外部背书。",
"authors": [
"本站方法"
]
},
{
"source_id": "PBCD-CASE-AMZN",
"title": "Amazon：2026-09-20历史条件研究案例",
"version": "研究截止2026-09-20；教学摘编2026-09-21",
"access": {
"kind": "site_body",
"uri": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/zh/notebook/amzn-research-20260920/",
"availability": "staged_site_body; accessible after adoption"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "case-amzn-facts、case-amzn-operating、case-amzn-capital",
"scope": "事实身份、所选分支4年及Base季度资金段",
"purpose": "把实现H1、全年估计和剩余H2分开"
},
"supports": "原研究的事实/分析代理、四条未来路径、5项具名替代、4套权重与16组已算分布。报价冻结，代表点不是条件均值。",
"authors": [
"本站历史研究"
]
},
{
"source_id": "src-amzn-2026q2",
"title": "Amazon Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 30, 2026",
"version": "2026Q2 SEC filing",
"access": {
"kind": "html_full_text",
"uri": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000026/amzn-20260630.htm"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "Note8 pp22–25",
"scope": "分部定义、费用分配、收入/OI、PP&E取得/D&A完整单元",
"purpose": "不混用广义现金流加回与设备折旧"
},
"supports": "分部范围与经营费用使用分配、产品收入、PP&E取得和折旧；债务/租赁、SBC/RSU等资本权利实例。未来余额不由当期附注直接给出。",
"authors": [
"Amazon.com, Inc."
]
},
{
"source_id": "PBCD-IEA-AI-2026-HTML",
"title": "Key Questions on Energy and AI — Executive summary",
"version": "2026-04-16",
"access": {
"kind": "html_full_text",
"uri": "https://www.iea.org/reports/key-questions-on-energy-and-ai/executive-summary"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "Across the AI value chain, a scramble…",
"scope": "该小节全文",
"purpose": "理解供给和融资前置"
},
"supports": "AI资本链中的供应/设备/电网与融资限制；采用行业机制，不推AWS具体容量或收益率。",
"branch": "aws",
"authors": [
"International Energy Agency"
]
},
{
"source_id": "PBCD-CMA-CLOUD-2025",
"title": "Cloud Infrastructure Services: Final Decision Report",
"version": "2025 final report",
"access": {
"kind": "pdf_full_text",
"uri": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/688b8891fdde2b8f73469544/final_decision_report.pdf"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "§§6.320–6.325",
"scope": "技术迁移与multi-cloud完整指定单元",
"purpose": "留存机制不等于固定收入增长"
},
"supports": "历史英国技术迁移/multi-cloud摩擦及缓解并存；不从这一单元推全球AWS增长或现行费用政策。",
"branch": "aws",
"authors": [
"Competition and Markets Authority"
]
},
{
"source_id": "PBCD-IAB-PWC-2025",
"title": "Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full-Year2025",
"version": "2026-04",
"access": {
"kind": "pdf_full_text",
"uri": "https://www.iab.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/IAB_PwC_Internet_Ad_Revenue_Report_Full_Year_2025_April_2026.pdf"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "pp27、32、35",
"scope": "commerce media、定义与调查方法完整页",
"purpose": "美国市场与全球公司分母边界"
},
"supports": "美国commerce media收入63.4bn、报告增速18%，并有测量/增量回报约束；范围不是Amazon全球广告。",
"branch": "retail",
"authors": [
"IAB",
"PwC"
]
}
]
},
"branch_selection_protocol": "默认AWS。切换零售时以该分支完整数组替换必读，完成对应材料后再教；全部展开才要求两支。共同资金任务必做。",
"experiment_ids": [
"EXP-P04-CANONICAL-PATH"
]
}
```
## Supplied entry
我们先不问股票值多少钱。先问一个更具体的问题：在未来几年里，客户为什么付钱，公司拿什么交付，收入变成利润之前要承担哪些成本，又要先拿出多少资金？只有把这些关系接起来，“增长”才不只是一列百分比。
本篇用 **2026年9月20日的 Amazon 历史研究**练习这一步。财报实现值、研究中的分析代理和2027—2029年未来路径会分别标明。金额均为十亿美元；它们不是今天更新的预测。读完之后，你应能重建一条经营关系，再解释同一个冲击为什么同时改变利润、资本与融资需求。完整历史材料归于[公司案例](/zh/notebook/amzn-research-20260920/)。[^case]
## 1. 我们究竟在预测哪一种生意
Amazon 的报告分部是北美、国际和 AWS。北美、国际内部又包含自营商品、第三方卖家服务、广告与订阅等收费活动。这里不能把“国际”与“广告”当两份互不重叠的收入相加，也不能把履约网络另算成一家公司，然后再把它服务的商品收入完整算一遍。财报分部说明公司怎样汇总经营结果，业务关系说明这些结果为什么出现。[^amzn]
AWS 的客户使用计算、存储、数据库等服务。客户业务扩大可能增加使用量，但优化程序、压缩存储或更换产品也可能减少每项任务的资源消耗。因此，客户还留在云上，不等于账单必然按固定速度增长。CMA 的历史研究确认技术迁移存在摩擦，并同时讨论缓解这些摩擦的办法；它支持研究留存机制，不提供 AWS 的全球未来增长率。[^cma]
我们可以把一条关系写成“客户任务量 → 每项任务资源消耗 → 实际服务组合与净价 → 收入”。若再展开供给端，还要接上供电、设备、投用与工程资源。IEA 的2026年研究把芯片、电网、设备和融资列为数据中心建设的相互制约条件；这提醒我们，客户签约与能够交付并不是同一天发生的事。[^iea]
**经营情景**是同一组外部条件下，企业与客户作出响应后形成的经营和资金路径。它不是把一张表统一上调或下调百分之二十。好情景可以有更多资本需求；坏情景也必须保留公司调整采购、改变产品或修复成本的能力。
## 2. 用实现结果固定起点，而不是固定未来
先看历史案例使用的 AWS 三期实现值。Q4来自年度业绩，Q1和Q2属于2026年；最后一行才是研究的全年估计。[^case]
| 期间 | 收入 | 经营利润 OI | 身份 |
|---|---:|---:|---|
| 2025Q4 | 35.579 | 12.465 | 已实现单季 |
| 2026Q1 | 37.587 | 14.161 | 已实现单季 |
| 2026Q2 | 42.232 | 16.621 | 已实现单季 |
| 2026全年 | 175.000 | 67.074690 | 历史研究中的预测，不是实现值 |
Q2的附注明确给出上半年 AWS 收入79.819、OI30.782、物业设备折旧摊销15.353。三者分别是收费结果、扣除经营成本后的利润，以及其中一类资本消耗；不能把现金流量表中包括内容、租赁资产等项目的更大加回数，换来充当这里的设备折旧。[^amzn]
本案例把 AWS 收入拆为 Core 与“直接 AI”代理。Core 也包括 AI 带来的存储、数据库和 CPU 配套；所以这并非财报披露的“纯非AI/纯AI”两分部。Base 的2027年采用173与55，合计228。这个拆分有助于研究客户采用与配套需求，却没有把未披露的微观变量变成观测事实。
校准的用途，是让关系面对实际材料。三期财报检查规模与变化；上下游检查交付和付款是否成立；外部研究检查另一种解释。历史案例的电力合同上限、成熟客户的数据库优化和广告市场增速，分别约束供给、消耗效率与付费，不是三份可以相加的需求。完整方法还要求对应电话会、代表上下一跳和不同外部研究角度；这里沿用那份历史研究的证据记录，不把一节教学当作重做完整公司研究。[^method]
## 3. 把收入、贡献和折旧接成一条关系
先选择 AWS 主分支。零售分支在后面，阅读其中一支即可完成本篇的主要操作。
本案例采用 $OI_t=c_tR_t-F_t-D_t$。其中 $c_tR_t$ 是扣除关系中所定义可变成本后的贡献，$F_t$ 是折旧前的固定经营成本代理，$D_t$ 是设备折旧摊销。$c_t$ 不是公司披露的毛利率，$F_t$ 也不是财报里一行可直接抄下的费用。
怎样确定这个代理的起点？历史研究设 $c=64\%$，并把0.599的能源估值收益全分配至 AWS，作为会计调整的上限假设。用上半年结果反推：
$$
F_{H1}=0.64\times79.819-(30.782-0.599+15.353)=5.54816,
\qquad a=F_{H1}/15.353.
$$
接下来暂用 $F_t=aD_t$ 表示已投用资本规模带来的固定经营负担。它把规模变化连起来，但并未证明所有固定成本都由折旧驱动。这样的代理允许被证据修正；它的好处不是精确，而是比另填一列利润率更容易检查。
关键在于 $D_t$ 也来自同一资本计划。案例将新资产分为45%的服务器/网络与55%的数据中心，设寿命分别5.5年、30年；服务器分当年/次年投用75%/25%，数据中心分当年/后两年投用20%/45%/35%，投用当年计半年的折旧。这些均为研究假设。于是，当年取得1单位资产，贡献的当年折旧是
$$
k_0=\frac{0.45\times0.75}{5.5}\times\frac12+
\frac{0.55\times0.20}{30}\times\frac12=0.0325151515.
$$
若 $A_j$ 为第 $j$ 年取得资产，$k_{t-j}$ 为相应批次在第 $t$ 年的折旧系数，则本观察窗口内 $D_t=L_t+\sum_{j\le t}A_jk_{t-j}$；$L_t$ 是既有资产的折旧。这里的半年度约定适用于此例，不是所有资产的通用会计要求。预测窗外还要处理寿命结束与更新，不能无限延伸这一短窗口系数。
我们把2027年的折旧也实际重建一次。上一年新取得资产在第二年的折旧系数为
$$
k_1=\frac{0.45}{5.5}(0.75+0.25/2)+\frac{0.55}{30}(0.20+0.45/2)
=0.0793825758.
$$
第一项把已投用服务器计全年、新投用部分计半年；第二项对数据中心做同样处理。2026年的既有资产折旧为 $L_{2026}=33-192.5k_0=26.7408333333$，案例再设其每年保留90%，因此
$$
D_{2027}=0.9L_{2026}+192.5k_1+190k_0=45.5257746212.
$$
三个加项分别来自更早的存量、2026批次和2027批次，并不是把所有取得额都直接计成当年费用。固定经营负担比例 $a=5.54816/15.353\approx0.3613730216$，所以 $F_{2027}=aD_{2027}=16.4517867337$。因此
$$
OI=0.64\times228-16.4517867337-45.5257746212
=83.9424386451.
$$
我们现在能解释利润变化：收入增加带来贡献，先行资本投用使折旧与固定负担也增加。2029年收入337、OI113.569862、折旧75.005261，利润率约33.70%；不是看到收入增长后，再独立宣布利润率也会上升。
| Base年份 | 收入 | 折旧摊销 | 经营利润 | 当年资产取得 |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 2026 | 175 | 33.000000 | 67.074690 | 192.5 |
| 2027 | 228 | 45.525775 | 83.942439 | 190.0 |
| 2028 | 283 | 60.769327 | 98.390278 | 165.0 |
| 2029 | 337 | 75.005261 | 113.569862 | 145.0 |
表中资产取得不等于同年现金付款，折旧也不等于维护资本开支。它们分别回答“本期增加了什么资源”“本期付了多少钱”“本期利润承担多少资本消耗”。
## 分支：同一个框架，零售为什么换了变量
零售不能照搬算力关系。案例从自营、实体店、第三方、广告、订阅、其他六类收入出发。2026研究基数依次为297.1、23.5、194.1、85.0、55.7、7.1，总计662.5。Base 2027对应增长8%、4%、11%、18%、10%、24%，因此合计731.133。这里的第三方服务收入不是商户成交总额，广告收入也不是广告主销售额。[^case]
以 $S=(第三方+广告+订阅)/非AWS收入$ 表示服务收入组合，案例采用
$$
\Delta m_{bps}=20\Delta S_{pp}-35u_{\%}-v_{bps}+e_{bps}.
$$
$u$ 是单位物流成本变化，$v$ 是价格投入，$e$ 是其他净改善。20与35都是研究代理；百分点、百分数、基点各有分母：服务占比增加1个百分点产生20基点贡献，而单位成本增加1%产生35基点负担。
2027服务组合贡献为20.616579基点。北美的单位成本变化为0%、价格投入15基点、其他改善15基点，净增仍是20.616579基点；国际分别为0.25%、20、25，净增 $20.616579-8.75-20+25=16.866579$ 基点。将这两个增量加入7.65%与3.85%的起始利润率，再按各地区收入加总，得到49.639111的非AWS经营利润。
IAB/PwC报告中的美国 commerce media 在2025年为63.4十亿美元、增长18%；其统计范围不是 Amazon 全球广告，不能直接相除求市占率。它在历史研究中用于挑战广告增长的持续性，促使广告收入和组合贡献一起下调，而不是另加一笔独立“广告价值”。[^iab]
## 4. 利润增长之后，现金为何还可能不够
从利润走到资金，要保留费用与付款的时间差。历史案例以集团2026全年资产取得254.5，减融资租赁新增4.3，再减额外设备付款时差30.2，得到现金资本支出220。6月末现金余额已经反映上半年付款96.31，所以后半年只再扣123.69。若再次扣全年220，就把已发生的上半年重复算了一遍。[^case]
再看 Base 2027Q1。期初现金111.974015，加上该季核心现金变化−56.123359，另扣客户融资出资2.5，融资前现金为53.350656。核心现金变化已经包括当季收入成本、折旧/SBC加回、营运资本、现金税、资本付款、既有融资服务与近似现金收益，但未含本次新发债的费用与半季度利息。
模型要求融资后至少保留60。设新债本金 $B$、发行费用率0.5%、年利率6%，且该季新债平均占用半个季度，则
$$
53.350656+B(1-0.005-0.06/8)=60,
\qquad B=6.733512582.
$$
费用和利息也消耗现金，所以融资本金略大于缺口6.649344。60只是本模型的融资警戒线，不是 Amazon 的实际资金政策；借款可得性也是条件。后续季度的“融资前现金”继承了前面已经融到的钱，它不是全期从不融资的反事实路径。
## 5. 操作：换一个已经定义的世界
[打开经营与资金实验](/notebook/labs/p-bcd/interactions.html#EXP-P04-CANONICAL-PATH)。先看 Base 的年度经营表与季度现金线，再选择“AI延后并连带Core”。后者把2027 Core改为 $148\times1.12$，AI采用27/35/58/90，保留原来的资产取得计划；企业现金和融资随新经营结果重算。其终点现金从116.404522变为94.580212，借款从276.792273变为327.672724。**资本计划不变，绝不等于现金不变。**
另一项“AWS较弱、非AWS Base”使用 AWS Bear 经营关系、非AWS Base 关系，并以 Base 资金规则重算。只固定原倍数时每股条件值278.410746，再采用各自业务状态倍数时为243.300457。前后比较分别隔离经营变化与定价变化；不能把这个替代再任意叠加到 Bull 或 Tail 上。
关闭脚本时，可直接用下面的摘要作同一比较。具名替代只给其实际保存的摘要，没有把原 Base 的14季现金线冒充替代路径。
| 路径 | 2029现金 | 2029有息借款 | 2029每股条件值，固定Base倍数 |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| 原 Base | 116.404522 | 276.792273 | 347.446133 |
| AWS较弱、非AWS Base | 87.440015 | 308.731984 | 278.410746 |
| 非AWS较弱、AWS Base | 101.777918 | 294.802952 | 300.376388 |
| AI与Core联动延后 | 94.580212 | 327.672724 | 294.517264 |
## 6. 练习与完整解析
**解释题。** 某电力合同写“最多供应1,920MW”，研究员把它乘自设的每MW收入并加入当年预测。哪条关系缺失？
**解析。** “最多”是权利上限，不是当期交付。需要核合同爬坡、地点与并网、机房投用、供电与IT负载的转换、任务量、使用率和计费条件。Talen在2025年6月11日的公告预计分阶段爬坡至全额，最迟2032年达到1,920MW；这个历史计划不等于当年实现。[^talen] 不能既把合同当新容量、又把客户合同总额另算一份需求。即使乘法量纲看似成立，经济对应仍未建立。
**计算题。** 若 Base 2027只把贡献率从64%降到60%，暂时固定收入、固定成本与折旧，经营利润下降多少？能否直接由此宣称融资也不变？
**解析。** 利润下降 $0.04\times228=9.12$，得到74.8224386451。这是局部贡献敏感性，不是新公司情景。利润下降会影响经营现金与借款需求；现金税、营运资本、融资费用是否响应还需指定。固定资本计划只固定一类支出，不能固定现金净变化。本实验不把这个手算自动升级为已保存的完整替代。
**迁移题。** 需求晚一年到来，公司能够取消尚未下单的服务器，但不能撤销已投用的数据中心。应该把所有资本和折旧随收入一起后移吗？
**解析。** 不应。先区分已付款、已承诺、未下单、已投用四种状态，再只调整真正可调整的批次；已投用资产的折旧和维护仍存在。未来服务器采购后移可能缓解现金，却也约束后续交付能力。我们应重新检查“客户需求—交付能力—贡献—资本—融资”，而不是只把收入表平移。下一篇将沿这张业务图判断哪些部分可以独立定价。
[^amzn]: Amazon，2026Q2 Form 10-Q，Note 8，印刷pp22–25：分部范围、经营费用分配、收入/OI、PP&E取得与折旧表。[原文](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000026/amzn-20260630.htm)。表内million已统一为billion。
[^case]: [CASE-AMZN-20260920](/zh/notebook/amzn-research-20260920/#case-amzn-operating)，历史研究的事实台账、经营代理、年度路径与具名替代。未来金额均保持2026-09-20研究身份。
[^method]: [业务关系与共同经营状态](/zh/notebook/business-relations-calibrated-states/#pm-business-state-calibration-contract)，本站方法的局部摘编。
[^cma]: CMA，Cloud Infrastructure Services: Final Decision Report，2025，§§6.320–6.325，印刷pp326–327。[原文](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/688b8891fdde2b8f73469544/final_decision_report.pdf)。采用历史英国技术迁移机制，不移植市场份额。
[^iea]: IEA，Key Questions on Energy and AI，2026-04-16，[Executive summary](https://www.iea.org/reports/key-questions-on-energy-and-ai/executive-summary)，完整小节“Across the AI value chain, a scramble…”；提供行业供给与融资机制，不提供AWS特定收入参数。
[^iab]: IAB/PwC，Internet Advertising Revenue Report FY2025，2026-04，p27，定义与方法见pp32、35。[原文](https://www.iab.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/IAB_PwC_Internet_Ad_Revenue_Report_Full_Year_2025_April_2026.pdf)。
[^talen]: Talen，2025-06-11 Form 8-K，Exhibit 99.1，第1页（PDF第4页）供电数量、爬坡时间；第3页前瞻性说明。[公告原文](https://ir.talenenergy.com/static-files/90cce90c-e281-42c6-b686-ed6010dd8699)。采用公告时的计划身份，不据此确认后续全部交付。
## Experiment inputs and static equivalents
```json
[
{
"id": "EXP-P04-CANONICAL-PATH",
"title": "从校准业务关系到共同经营情景",
"anchor": "p04-experiment",
"description": "以已实现事实校准同一经营关系，重建资本批次、利润与资金，再比较原状态和具名替代。",
"inputs": {
"choice": {
"allowed": [
"Bull",
"Base",
"Bear",
"Tail",
"aws_strong_alternative_fixed_base_pricing",
"retail_weak_fixed_base_pricing",
"mixed_aws_strong_retail_weak",
"mixed_aws_weak_retail_strong",
"ai_delay_core_attach_linked_capital_unchanged"
],
"default": "Base",
"type": "exclusive selector"
}
},
"outputs": {
"canonical": "four-year AWS/nonAWS table +14quarter cash summary +terminal capital",
"named": "own mapped annual branches and capital summary; AI delay compact summary only"
},
"units": {
"money": "USD billion for company amounts; USD per share for outcomes",
"shares": "billion",
"probabilities": "fractions summing to one"
},
"identity": "frozen dated research or explicitly marked bounded teaching arithmetic",
"static_equivalent": {
"reader": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/zh/notebook/calibrated-business-scenarios/#p04-experiment",
"lab": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/notebook/labs/p-bcd/interactions.html#EXP-P04-CANONICAL-PATH",
"without_javascript": "默认完整表和主要对照保留；不把参数规格当运行结果"
},
"algorithm": "engine.path(choice)；只按source_key选已有结果，选择命名替代不再接state/stress，缺季度不插值。",
"boundaries": [
"未知组合抛错并清空旧结果",
"替代中capital规则为Base但余额属于重算结果",
"不由GPU/MW/ARR生成新收入"
],
"default_values": {
"aws_2027_ebit": 83.94243864509258,
"cash": 116.40452209404924,
"debt": 276.79227253610446
},
"inputs_uri": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/notebook/labs/p-bcd/inputs.json"
}
]
```
## Sources
- [Amazon：2026-09-20历史条件研究案例](https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/zh/notebook/amzn-research-20260920/): 原研究的事实/分析代理、四条未来路径、5项具名替代、4套权重与16组已算分布。报价冻结，代表点不是条件均值。
- [Cloud Infrastructure Services: Final Decision Report](https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/688b8891fdde2b8f73469544/final_decision_report.pdf): 历史英国技术迁移/multi-cloud摩擦及缓解并存；不从这一单元推全球AWS增长或现行费用政策。
- [Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full-Year2025](https://www.iab.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/IAB_PwC_Internet_Ad_Revenue_Report_Full_Year_2025_April_2026.pdf): 美国commerce media收入63.4bn、报告增速18%，并有测量/增量回报约束；范围不是Amazon全球广告。
- [Key Questions on Energy and AI — Executive summary](https://www.iea.org/reports/key-questions-on-energy-and-ai/executive-summary): AI资本链中的供应/设备/电网与融资限制；采用行业机制，不推AWS具体容量或收益率。
- [业务关系、校准与共同经营状态](https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/zh/notebook/business-relations-calibrated-states/): 本站原创方法摘编，规定业务边界、校准与共同资本责任；公开原件各自支持实例，不是完整方法的外部背书。
- [Talen 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: nuclear energy relationship with Amazon](https://ir.talenenergy.com/static-files/90cce90c-e281-42c6-b686-ed6010dd8699): 公告中的1,920MW为满额供电计划，预计爬坡最迟2032达到；供电数量不等于AWS当期IT容量或收费收入。
- [Amazon · 2026 Q2 Form 10-Q](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000026/amzn-20260630.htm): 来源摘要：截至 2026-06-30 的季度报告。用于核对自营零售、第三方卖家服务与 AWS 的业务口径，以及存货、设备和现金流的合并披露。案例的解释由作者根据研究整理。
## Content relations
```json
[
{
"from": "zh-p04",
"relation": "part_of",
"to": "portfolio-valuation",
"reason": "主要 topic 归属"
},
{
"relation": "uses_method",
"to": "zh-pmbusinessstate",
"reason": "调用短参考中本篇对应的输入输出与条件，不反向要求读完六篇",
"from": "zh-p04"
},
{
"relation": "illustrated_by",
"to": "zh-amzn-research-20260920",
"reason": "固定日期案例；不新建第二个别名案例",
"period": "2025Q4–2029",
"cutoff": "2026-09-20",
"from": "zh-p04"
},
{
"relation": "supported_by",
"to": "src-amzn-2026q2",
"reason": "分部范围与经营费用使用分配、产品收入、PP&E取得和折旧；债务/租赁、SBC/RSU等资本权利实例。未来余额不由当期附注直接给出。",
"locator": "Note8 pp22–25; Note3 pp13–14; Note4 p15 Commitments; Note5 pp17–18 debt table and notes; Note6 p19",
"scope": "本次重开Note8整单元；租赁余额/期限及成本表、融资承诺表与脚注、债务本金/账面及费用桥、RSU/SBC单元。不是整份10-Q全部审阅。",
"optional": false,
"from": "zh-p04"
},
{
"relation": "supported_by",
"to": "PBCD-CMA-CLOUD-2025",
"reason": "历史英国技术迁移/multi-cloud摩擦及缓解并存；不从这一单元推全球AWS增长或现行费用政策。",
"locator": "§§6.320–6.325, printedpp326–327",
"scope": "两页完整指定单元，原页已看；不作为全部637页阅读。",
"optional": false,
"from": "zh-p04"
},
{
"relation": "supported_by",
"to": "PBCD-IEA-AI-2026-HTML",
"reason": "AI资本链中的供应/设备/电网与融资限制；采用行业机制，不推AWS具体容量或收益率。",
"locator": "Complete subsection beginning “Across the AI value chain, a scramble…”",
"scope": "实际取得官方HTML指定完整小节及相邻供给展望。PDF直链反复失败，未将其p47记作本次读取；PPA具体事实改用已读Talen原件。",
"optional": false,
"from": "zh-p04"
},
{
"relation": "supported_by",
"to": "PBCD-IAB-PWC-2025",
"reason": "美国commerce media收入63.4bn、报告增速18%，并有测量/增量回报约束；范围不是Amazon全球广告。",
"locator": "p27 commerce media; p32 definitions; p35 methodology",
"scope": "三页正文、图与定义/方法实际看原页；不称43页全部重读。",
"optional": false,
"from": "zh-p04"
},
{
"relation": "supported_by",
"to": "PBCD-TALEN-PPA",
"reason": "公告中的1,920MW为满额供电计划，预计爬坡最迟2032达到；供电数量不等于AWS当期IT容量或收费收入。",
"locator": "Ex99.1 printed p1 (PDF p4); Ex99.1 printed p3 forward-looking statements (PDF p6)",
"scope": "上述完整页和前瞻说明，已查看原页；未用公告确认后来全部交付。",
"optional": false,
"from": "zh-p04"
},
{
"from": "p04-experiment",
"relation": "illustrated_by",
"to": "EXP-P04-CANONICAL-PATH",
"at_section": "p04-experiment",
"reason": "以已实现事实校准同一经营关系，重建资本批次、利润与资金，再比较原状态和具名替代。"
}
]
```
## Related entries