# 保证金与对冲中的现金压力

用一条玉米采购账完整重放VM、可用资金、承诺融资与资金不足后的平仓。

Entry: zh-p23 | Node: P23 | Language: zh | Editorial revision: 2026-09-21

## Teaching instructions
请先实际读取本篇必读原件的指定完整单元，再围绕“用一条玉米采购账完整重放VM、可用资金、承诺融资与资金不足后的平仓。”带我完成学习。先让我自己判断方向、对象或基准，再让我逐步重建一项承重计算；不要先把答案全部说出。选读分支只有我选中后才启用对应原件和输入。每次解释都分清真实规则、教学假设、作者报告与本站复算。逐事件核现金、负债、费用和剩余仓位；资金不足时停止已完成结果。使用本包正文里的完整解析反馈我哪里错、为什么、如何迁移。未来runtime_reading_log由你实际读取后填写，不能把作者或支持者日志当成自己的阅读。不要接触账户或更新冻结数据。

Before substantive teaching, actually retrieve every required reading unit for the selected scope. Read its complete designated section, including necessary assumptions, tables and footnotes. A working URL or an editorial access date is not a runtime reading receipt. Record the actual version, location, scope and what it supports. If unavailable, use a previously verified equivalent source; if the required unit remains unavailable, identify that gap rather than teach it from memory. Start runtime_reading_log empty. Once reading is complete, use a substantive diagnostic or follow the reader's request for direct explanation. Advance one complete reasoning task at a time; skip mastered basics. Distinguish original facts, supplied teaching assumptions and inference.

## Required readings and runtime protocol
```json
{
  "export_mode": "public",
  "entry_id": "zh-p23",
  "learning_task": "用一条玉米采购账完整重放VM、可用资金、承诺融资与资金不足后的平仓。",
  "required_readings": [
    {
      "source_id": "MP-CME-GRAIN",
      "title": "Self-Study Guide to Hedging with Grain and Oilseed Futures and Options",
      "authors": [
        "CME Group"
      ],
      "version": "归档教学指南，2026-09-21读取",
      "access": {
        "kind": "pdf_full_text",
        "uri": "https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/files/grain-oilseed-hedgers-guide.pdf",
        "verified_access_at": "2026-09-21"
      },
      "required_unit": {
        "locator": "ch2 printed pp9–14 / PDF pp11–16；ch3 printed pp17–22 / PDF pp19–24；margin pp6–7",
        "scope": "采购与销售方向、价量原例及当地基差。",
        "purpose": "用一条玉米采购账完整重放VM、可用资金、承诺融资与资金不足后的平仓。"
      },
      "supports": "采购与销售方向、价量原例及当地基差。",
      "limits": "公开教学例非企业实盘；p21上涨情景+.10应为+.05，p22−.02不为gain。"
    },
    {
      "source_id": "MD-S05",
      "title": "Money Calculations for CME-cleared Futures and Options",
      "authors": [
        "CME Group"
      ],
      "version": "2015-06-11",
      "access": {
        "kind": "pdf_full_text",
        "uri": "https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/files/CME-Money-Calculations-Futures-and-Options.pdf",
        "verified_access_at": "2026-09-21"
      },
      "required_unit": {
        "locator": "pp1–3普通期货变动现金完整单元",
        "scope": "逐日价格变动、乘数、现金与结算口径。",
        "purpose": "用一条玉米采购账完整重放VM、可用资金、承诺融资与资金不足后的平仓。"
      },
      "supports": "逐日价格变动、乘数、现金与结算口径。",
      "limits": "清算层计算不等于某客户的资金时点与house margin。"
    },
    {
      "source_id": "MD-S08",
      "title": "Market turbulence and soaring margins: lessons from two recent episodes",
      "authors": [
        "Benjamin H Cohen",
        "Kevin Tracol",
        "BIS"
      ],
      "version": "BIS Quarterly Review，2023-03",
      "access": {
        "kind": "pdf_full_text",
        "uri": "https://www.bis.org/publications/perceptions-risk-and-policy-outlook-drive-markets_1.pdf",
        "verified_access_at": "2026-09-21"
      },
      "required_unit": {
        "locator": "Box A printed pp5–6，Graph A1及图注",
        "scope": "VM与模型IM在压力中共同变化；VM图为五日累计。",
        "purpose": "用一条玉米采购账完整重放VM、可用资金、承诺融资与资金不足后的平仓。"
      },
      "supports": "VM与模型IM在压力中共同变化；VM图为五日累计。",
      "limits": "非玉米真实账户；不复制Clarus未取得底层数据。"
    },
    {
      "source_id": "MA-FSB",
      "title": "Liquidity Preparedness for Margin and Collateral Calls: Final Report",
      "authors": [
        "Financial Stability Board"
      ],
      "version": "2024-12-10",
      "access": {
        "kind": "pdf_full_text",
        "uri": "https://www.fsb.org/uploads/P101224-1.pdf",
        "verified_access_at": "2026-09-21"
      },
      "required_unit": {
        "locator": "§3.3 printed pp18–20 / PDF pp22–24，Recommendations6–8",
        "scope": "抵押品资格、占用、haircut、币种、地点与及时到账。",
        "purpose": "用一条玉米采购账完整重放VM、可用资金、承诺融资与资金不足后的平仓。"
      },
      "supports": "抵押品资格、占用、haircut、币种、地点与及时到账。",
      "limits": "政策建议，不是统一现金比例或券商保证金承诺。"
    }
  ],
  "optional_readings": [],
  "runtime_reading_log": [],
  "supplied_inputs": {
    "case_inputs": [
      {
        "id": "CME-GRAIN-TEACHING",
        "owner": "P21",
        "consumers": [
          "P21",
          "P23",
          "P24"
        ],
        "version": "final-20260921",
        "unit": {
          "price": "USD/bushel",
          "quantity": "bushels",
          "contract": "5000 bushels"
        },
        "identity": "CME teaching illustration plus current corn contract identity; not an enterprise execution.",
        "defaults": {
          "procurement": {
            "quantity": 15000,
            "initial_futures": 5.75,
            "contracts_long": 3,
            "outcomes": [
              {
                "futures": 6.25,
                "cash": 6.2,
                "futures_pnl": 7500,
                "effective_unit_price": 5.7
              },
              {
                "futures": 5.45,
                "cash": 5.45,
                "futures_pnl": -4500,
                "effective_unit_price": 5.75
              },
              {
                "futures": 6.03,
                "cash": 6.1,
                "futures_pnl": 4200,
                "effective_unit_price": 5.82
              }
            ]
          },
          "sales": {
            "quantity": 20000,
            "initial_futures": 5.7,
            "contracts_short": 4,
            "production_cost": 5.1,
            "outcomes": [
              {
                "futures": 5.2,
                "cash": 5.05,
                "futures_pnl": 10000,
                "effective_unit_price": 5.55,
                "business_profit": 9000
              },
              {
                "futures": 5.9,
                "cash": 5.7,
                "futures_pnl": -4000,
                "effective_unit_price": 5.5,
                "business_profit": 8000
              },
              {
                "futures": 5.37,
                "cash": 5.1,
                "futures_pnl": 6600,
                "effective_unit_price": 5.43,
                "business_profit": 6600
              }
            ]
          }
        },
        "source_corrections": [
          "printed p21: basis -0.25→-0.20 is +0.05, not +0.10",
          "printed p22: basis -0.25→-0.27 is -0.02, not a gain"
        ],
        "branch_boundaries": {
          "quantity_mismatch": "Show uncovered/excess futures exposure.",
          "quality_location": "Contract unit does not eliminate local basis."
        }
      },
      {
        "id": "SIM-PJ-CORN-CASH-01",
        "owner": "P23",
        "consumers": [
          "P23",
          "P24"
        ],
        "version": "final-20260921",
        "unit": {
          "money": "USD",
          "quantity": "bushels",
          "price": "USD/bushel"
        },
        "identity": "Single shared corn procurement funding ledger for P23/P24.",
        "defaults": {
          "initial_own_cash": 106000,
          "unavailable_until_procurement": 90000,
          "current_liquid": 16000,
          "initial_margin_per_contract": 3000,
          "maintenance_per_contract": 2000,
          "futures_path": [
            5.75,
            5.45,
            5.1,
            6.25
          ],
          "procurement_quantity": 15000,
          "terminal_cash_price": 6.2
        },
        "default_results": {
          "three_contracts_no_credit": {
            "unfunded_gap_step2": 2750,
            "close_price": 5.1,
            "futures_pnl": -9750,
            "ending_own_cash": 3250,
            "effective_purchase_cost": 102750
          },
          "two_contracts": {
            "futures_pnl": 5000,
            "ending_own_cash": 18000,
            "effective_purchase_cost": 88000
          },
          "three_contracts_credit": {
            "limit": 3000,
            "draw": 2750,
            "interest": 7.534246575342481,
            "ending_own_cash": 20492.46575342465,
            "effective_purchase_cost": 85507.53424657535
          },
          "unhedged": {
            "ending_own_cash": 13000,
            "effective_purchase_cost": 93000
          }
        },
        "branch_boundaries": {
          "P23": "Stop ledger when deadline funding fails.",
          "P24": "Same ledger; later rebound is not earned after close.",
          "credit_2000": "Still short by 750 at step2."
        }
      }
    ],
    "operational_details": {
      "corn": {
        "initial_wealth": 106000,
        "restricted_until_purchase": 90000,
        "contract_size": 5000,
        "initial_margin": 3000,
        "maintenance_margin": 2000,
        "prices": [
          5.75,
          5.45,
          5.1,
          6.25
        ],
        "physical_quantity": 15000,
        "physical_price": 6.2,
        "loan_rate": 0.1,
        "loan_days": 10,
        "fees": 0,
        "close_rule": "If full call cannot be funded, close at the given teaching settlement before drawing a partial loan; no further futures position. Release remaining margin."
      }
    },
    "static_default_result": {
      "id": "SIM-PJ-CORN-CASH-01",
      "unit": "USD",
      "n": 3,
      "credit": 0,
      "status": "futures_closed_before_purchase",
      "stop": {
        "step": 2,
        "F": 5.1,
        "required": 5250.000000000008,
        "free": 2500.0000000000027,
        "credit_remaining": 0,
        "gap": 2750.0000000000055
      },
      "final": {
        "event": "采购、释放保证金并偿债",
        "margin": 0,
        "restricted": 0,
        "loan": 0,
        "free": 3250,
        "physical_payment": 93000,
        "loan_repaid": 0,
        "interest_paid": 0,
        "inventory_quantity": 15000,
        "inventory_mark_value": 93000,
        "inventory_is_not_cash": true
      },
      "futures_pnl": -9750.000000000005,
      "loan_drawn": 0,
      "interest": 0,
      "physical_payment": 93000,
      "ending_cash": 3250,
      "effective_cost": 102750,
      "initial_own_cash": 106000,
      "wealth_with_goods_after_settlement": 96250,
      "initial_loan_capacity": 0
    },
    "attachments": [
      {
        "path": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/notebook/labs/p-ijklm/shared/corn-cash-event-ledgers.csv",
        "branch": "core",
        "sha256": "9b778996982247177134a974e89d4099ff90b28187ff670a232607609d53e68f",
        "format": "csv",
        "public_access": "具名公开附件；与原稿字节一致。"
      }
    ],
    "default_scope": "core",
    "branch_rule": "复制或学习只带本篇及所选分支需要的附件，完整大数组只在shared中保存一次。",
    "case_scopes": {
      "CME-GRAIN-TEACHING": "core",
      "SIM-PJ-CORN-CASH-01": "core"
    },
    "operational_scopes": {
      "corn": "core"
    },
    "frozen_inputs_uri": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/notebook/labs/p-ijklm/shared/final-shared-inputs.json",
    "reproduction_data_uri": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/notebook/labs/p-ijklm/shared/runtime-inputs.json"
  },
  "source_id_aliases": {
    "PE-CME-MES": "MA-MES",
    "MP-CME-GRAIN": "MP-CME-GRAIN",
    "PI-CME-CORN": "PI-CME-CORN",
    "MP-CME-3Y": "MP-CME-3Y",
    "MP-CME-TREAS": "MP-CME-TREAS",
    "MD-S05": "MD-S05",
    "MD-S08": "MD-S08",
    "PE-FSB-MARGIN": "MA-FSB",
    "PI-CME-EUR": "PI-CME-EUR",
    "PI-MIT-CAPM03": "PI-MIT-CAPM03",
    "PI-MIT-CAPM08": "P-R04b",
    "PI-FRENCH-FACTORS": "PI-FRENCH-FACTORS",
    "QTDE-FRENCH": "QTC-FRENCH30",
    "QTDE-FRENCH-REGIME": "QTC-FRENCH",
    "PI-GIPS20": "P-R03",
    "MEFG-CHICAGOFED-2025": "PFH-CHIFED2025",
    "QTDE-TSCV": "QS02-5.10",
    "QGHI-MIT-BS13": "QGHI-MIT-BS13",
    "MD-S01": "MD-S01",
    "MOD-CRYPTO-CARRY": "MOD-CRYPTO-CARRY",
    "MOD-PERP-PAPER": "MOD-PERP-PAPER",
    "MOD-BYBIT-FUNDING": "MOD-BYBIT-FUNDING",
    "PI-BYBIT-FEE": "PI-BYBIT-FEE",
    "MOD-BYBIT-PNL": "MOD-BYBIT-PNL",
    "PI-CME-MBT": "PI-CME-MBT",
    "PI-CME-CRYPTO-FAQ": "PI-CME-CRYPTO-FAQ",
    "MOD-LVR": "MOD-LVR",
    "MOD-UNISWAP-V3": "MOD-UNISWAP-V3"
  }
}
```

## Supplied entry
“如果一直持有，这个对冲最终有效”与“我们真的能一直持有”，是两个问题。本篇用一条完整采购资金账把它们分开。你将逐次计算结算损益、保证金余额、应补款、实际可用资金及平仓后的结果。最重要的一步不是算出最终利润，而是在某个截止点承认：原来的计划已经不能继续。

<a id="p23-setup"></a>
## 1. 同一笔106,000美元，为什么不是都能补保证金？

一位采购者未来要买15,000蒲式耳玉米，已经有106,000美元自有现金。其中90,000在一笔到采购日才可动用的存款中；今天可用于对冲的只有16,000。这里没有把90,000从财富中删掉，只是根据教学合同区分它何时可用。

沿用CME采购例的数量与期货起点：做多3张，每张5,000蒲式耳，起点5.75。中途路径、账户限制和保证金以下均为教学设定：价格依次5.45、5.10、6.25；每张初始保证金3,000，维持要求2,000；先计结算损益，若账户低于维持要求，就补至初始要求。补不齐时，假设能在显示的结算价平仓并取回余额；这是假设成交，不是清算所保证的实际平仓价格。暂不计交易费和滑点。[^grain23]

建立3张头寸需把9,000从自由现金移到保证金账户，留下7,000自由现金。转账并没有亏损9,000：现在的资产是90,000受限存款、9,000保证金和7,000自由现金，合计仍是106,000。期货价格随后变化产生的损益才会改变净财富。

<a id="p23-recursion"></a>
## 2. 先结算，再判断，再动作

设仍持有的张数为 $N$，期货价从 $F_{k-1}$ 变为 $F_k$。多头本次结算损益为

$$
VM_k=5,000N(F_k-F_{k-1}).
$$

设结算前保证金为 $M_{k-1}$，先算 $M_k^-=M_{k-1}+VM_k$。若 $M_k^-<2,000N$，要求补款 $A_k=3,000N-M_k^-$；否则补款为零。这里“应补”是合同要求，不是已经到账的金额。只有自由现金加上事先承诺且能及时提款的额度足够，才能把余额写成补足后的数。

第一次跌到5.45，损失 $15,000\times(-0.30)=-4,500$。账户从9,000降到4,500，低于6,000维持要求，应补4,500。7,000自由现金足够，所以补至9,000，自由现金变2,500。

第二次跌到5.10，再损失 $15,000\times(-0.35)=-5,250$。账户从9,000降到3,750，应补5,250，但自由现金只有2,500。因此缺口是2,750。不是把2,500填成“已补5,250”，也不是因为还拥有90,000存款就宣布没有问题。

| 事件 | 本次VM | 结算后账户 | 应补款 | 截止前自由现金 | 动作后账户 | 动作后自由现金 |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 建仓 | 0 | 9,000 | — | 7,000 | 9,000 | 7,000 |
| 5.75→5.45 | −4,500 | 4,500 | 4,500 | 7,000 | 9,000 | 2,500 |
| 5.45→5.10 | −5,250 | 3,750 | 5,250 | 2,500 | 0，平仓 | 6,250 |
| 后来5.10→6.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6,250 | 0 | 6,250 |

第二次失败时没有先无意义地补入2,500再借回来；本教学处置直接平仓，把3,750保证金返还，自由现金成为 $2,500+3,750=6,250$。从此期货张数为零，后来反弹不再属于这个账户的收益。

<figure class="pfh-responsive-figure"><div class="svg-wide"><img src="/notebook/labs/p-ijklm/figures/P23-a.svg" alt="资金分在不同地点和日期：第二次要求补款时，90,000仍不能调用。"></div><div class="svg-narrow pfh-native"><p class="pfh-figure-title">三张采购对冲的现金过程</p><p class="pfh-figure-note">第2压力点无法足额补款，平仓后不再赚反弹</p><ul class="pfh-legend"><li><svg viewBox="0 0 32 12" width="32" height="12" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M1 6H31" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="3" stroke-dasharray=""/></svg><span>保证金</span></li><li><svg viewBox="0 0 32 12" width="32" height="12" aria-hidden="true"><path d="M1 6H31" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="3" stroke-dasharray="10 5"/></svg><span>自由现金</span></li></ul><p class="pfh-axis-label">美元；90,000受限存款未画成可用现金</p><div class="pfh-plot" style="--pfh-y-label-ch:10"><div class="pfh-y-ticks"><span style="top:100.0%">-1,080.00</span><span style="top:75.0%">1,710.00</span><span style="top:50.0%">4,500.00</span><span style="top:25.0%">7,290.00</span><span style="top:0.0%">10,080.00</span></div><svg class="pfh-plot-svg" viewBox="95.0 105.0 670.0 240.0" preserveAspectRatio="none" aria-hidden="true"><line class="grid" x1="95" y1="345.0" x2="765" y2="345.0" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"/><line class="grid" x1="95" y1="285.0" x2="765" y2="285.0" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"/><line class="grid" x1="95" y1="225.0" x2="765" y2="225.0" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"/><line class="grid" x1="95" y1="165.0" x2="765" y2="165.0" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"/><line class="grid" x1="95" y1="105.0" x2="765" y2="105.0" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"/><polyline points="95.00,128.23 229.00,225.00 363.00,128.23 497.00,241.13 631.00,321.77 765.00,321.77" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2.7" stroke-dasharray="" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"/><polyline points="95.00,171.24 229.00,171.24 363.00,268.01 497.00,268.01 631.00,187.37 765.00,187.37" fill="none" stroke="currentColor" stroke-width="2" stroke-dasharray="10 5" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"/><circle cx="95.0" cy="128.2258064516129" r="3.5" fill="white" stroke="currentColor" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"/><circle cx="229.0" cy="224.99999999999994" r="3.5" fill="white" stroke="currentColor" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"/><circle cx="363.0" cy="128.2258064516129" r="3.5" fill="white" stroke="currentColor" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"/><circle cx="497.0" cy="241.12903225806468" r="3.5" fill="white" stroke="currentColor" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"/><circle cx="631.0" cy="321.7741935483871" r="3.5" fill="white" stroke="currentColor" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"/><circle cx="765.0" cy="321.7741935483871" r="3.5" fill="white" stroke="currentColor" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"/><circle cx="95.0" cy="171.23655913978496" r="3.5" fill="white" stroke="currentColor" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"/><circle cx="229.0" cy="171.23655913978496" r="3.5" fill="white" stroke="currentColor" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"/><circle cx="363.0" cy="268.010752688172" r="3.5" fill="white" stroke="currentColor" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"/><circle cx="497.0" cy="268.010752688172" r="3.5" fill="white" stroke="currentColor" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"/><circle cx="631.0" cy="187.36559139784956" r="3.5" fill="white" stroke="currentColor" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"/><circle cx="765.0" cy="187.36559139784956" r="3.5" fill="white" stroke="currentColor" vector-effect="non-scaling-stroke"/></svg><div class="pfh-x-ticks"><span class="first" style="left:0.0%">建仓</span><span class="" style="left:60.0%">第2记账</span><span class="last" style="left:100.0%">无仓位</span></div></div></div></figure>

<a id="p23-terminal"></a>
## 3. 到采购日：比较采购成本，不把买货当全额财富损失

采购日存款可用，账户有 $90,000+6,250=96,250$ 现金。当地现货价6.20，支付93,000采购，剩余现金3,250。期间期货累计损失9,750，所以有效采购成本为

$$
93,000-(-9,750)=102,750.
$$

买到的玉米还在，它不是凭空消失的93,000财富；本表评价的是完成同一采购后剩多少现金，以及为该批货一共牺牲了多少资金。各方案的实物数量、采购日期和现货价相同，因此这个比较可对齐。若讨论整个企业终点净资产，还应把玉米库存按一致口径加回来。

若错误地忽略中途退出，把5.10到6.25的反弹继续加给3张多头，会虚增17,250收入，让期货结果从−9,750变成+7,500。这正是只画终点损益图最危险的地方：图上的“继续持有”其实偷偷假定了还没有取得的融资。

<a id="p23-alternatives"></a>
## 4. 三种替代改变了什么？

减为2张时，覆盖10,000蒲式耳，留下5,000未对冲。初始保证金6,000，自由现金10,000。前两次VM分别−3,000、−3,500，补款后仍有3,500自由现金；最后反弹带来11,500，期货累计盈利5,000。采购成本变88,000，剩余18,000。它在本路径活下来，代价是一直少覆盖了三分之一采购量。

另一种安排是在建仓前取得3,000承诺额度。第二次缺口出现时只借2,750，不需要借满。若十天后按10%年单利偿还，利息为

$$
2,750\times10\%\times\frac{10}{365}=7.5342466.
$$

3张继续持有，累计期货收入7,500。采购成本为 $93,000-7,500+7.5342466=85,507.5342466$，自有剩余现金20,492.4657534。偿还本金会减少现金，也同时消灭负债；不能把本金再作为额外费用扣一次。

| 安排 | 能否完整持有原头寸 | 期货累计损益 | 利息 | 有效采购成本 | 采购后自有现金 |
|---|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|
| 3张，无融资 | 否，第二次退出 | −9,750 | 0 | 102,750 | 3,250 |
| 2张 | 是，但数量不完全覆盖 | +5,000 | 0 | 88,000 | 18,000 |
| 3张，预先承诺额度 | 是，借2,750 | +7,500 | 7.534247 | 85,507.534247 | 20,492.465753 |
| 不对冲 | 不适用 | 0 | 0 | 93,000 | 13,000 |

<figure class="pfh-responsive-figure"><div class="svg-wide"><img src="/notebook/labs/p-ijklm/figures/P23-b.svg" alt="结果与取舍：同一初始资金下，存续、覆盖数量和融资代价不能合成一个“最好”标签。"></div><div class="svg-narrow pfh-native"><p class="pfh-figure-title">同一采购日，不同存续路径</p><p class="pfh-figure-note">四方案都从106,000自有资金出发</p><p class="pfh-axis-label">单位：有效采购成本，美元</p><ul class="pfh-cash-list"><li class="pfh-cash-row"><span class="pfh-cash-label">3张，停仓</span><div class="pfh-cash-reading"><strong>102,750.000</strong><span>正值</span></div><div class="pfh-cash-track" aria-hidden="true"><span style="width:100.0%"></span></div></li><li class="pfh-cash-row"><span class="pfh-cash-label">2张，存续</span><div class="pfh-cash-reading"><strong>88,000.000</strong><span>正值</span></div><div class="pfh-cash-track" aria-hidden="true"><span style="width:85.64476885644768%"></span></div></li><li class="pfh-cash-row"><span class="pfh-cash-label">3张，承诺融资</span><div class="pfh-cash-reading"><strong>85,507.534</strong><span>正值</span></div><div class="pfh-cash-track" aria-hidden="true"><span style="width:83.21901119221411%"></span></div></li><li class="pfh-cash-row"><span class="pfh-cash-label">不对冲</span><div class="pfh-cash-reading"><strong>93,000.000</strong><span>正值</span></div><div class="pfh-cash-track" aria-hidden="true"><span style="width:90.51094890510949%"></span></div></li></ul></div></figure>

<a id="p23-reality"></a>
## 5. 真实制度材料告诉我们再查什么

BIS对2020、2022利率互换压力的分析显示，变动保证金和模型初始保证金可以一起增加。但它的图包含五日累计VM和假设五日平仓期的IM，不是本玉米账户的某一天真实记录。我们用它理解两个资金通道同时收紧，不将图值移植成当前保证金。[^bis23]

FSB的抵押品管理建议则要求考虑资产是否已占用、是否合格、折扣率、币种、账户地点和到达时间。[^fsb23] 这说明“资产不少”只是起点。现实里还要查询券商要求、提款条件和处置程序。提前卖货能否及时结算，银行能否当日转账，承诺额度在压力下是否仍可提款，都不能从资产总额自动推出来。

<div data-experiment-slot="EXP-P23-LIQUIDITY"></div>

先选择3张、额度0，停在第二次现金检查；然后把额度改为2,000，检查剩余缺口750，而不是看到“有贷款”就跳到终点。最后比较额度3,000与2张无融资，分别说明新增的是信用依赖还是未覆盖采购量。实验只改变明确的教学额度和张数，不声称这就是任何经纪商的现行规则。

<a id="p23-exercises"></a>
## 6. 自测与解析

**解释题。** 在第二次追保前，资产包括90,000存款、3,750保证金和2,500自由现金，为什么仍不能继续？

资产合计96,250说明尚有净资产，但要求在当前截止前补5,250。90,000被合同时间限制；可补只有2,500。因此资金缺口2,750与净资产是否为正是两个问题。若改动存款到期规则，就已经是新的资金方案，必须明示。

**迁移题。** 承诺额度只有2,000，第二次应补5,250时应怎么记账？可以直接拿借来的2,000算后续盈利吗？

总可达资金4,500，仍缺750，不能补足。按本实验“先判断能否补齐”的规则，不为一个已失败的延续方案提款；在5.10平仓并停止。若另设“先提款、再被平仓”的操作，必须同时记借款、返还资金与利息，不能只保留贷款带来的现金而漏掉负债。

**完成标准。** 能逐事件指出应补、实补、返还、本金、利息和已关闭仓位，并拒绝把后来反弹加入失败路径，才算真正理解现金压力。

[^grain23]: CME Group，[Grain and Oilseed Hedgers Guide](https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/files/grain-oilseed-hedgers-guide.pdf)，ch1保证金机制与ch3采购单元。本文中途路径、期限、保证金数额和处置价为教学变式。
[^bis23]: Benjamin H. Cohen、Kevin Tracol，BIS Quarterly Review March 2023，[Box A: Market turbulence and soaring margins](https://www.bis.org/publications/perceptions-risk-and-policy-outlook-drive-markets_1.pdf)，印刷pp5–6与Graph A1图注。
[^fsb23]: FSB，[Liquidity Preparedness for Margin and Collateral Calls](https://www.fsb.org/uploads/P101224-1.pdf)，2024-12-10，§3.3印刷pp18–20、Recommendations 6–8。

<script src="/notebook/labs/p-ijklm/reader-adapter.js" defer></script>


## Experiment inputs and static equivalents
```json
[
  {
    "id": "EXP-P23-LIQUIDITY",
    "node_id": "P23",
    "title": "保证金与对冲中的现金压力",
    "anchor": "p23-reality",
    "description": "用一条玉米采购账完整重放VM、可用资金、承诺融资与资金不足后的平仓。",
    "inputs": {
      "frozen_ids": [
        "CME-GRAIN-TEACHING",
        "SIM-PJ-CORN-CASH-01"
      ],
      "operational_keys": [
        "corn"
      ],
      "units": "逐字段以shared/final-shared-inputs.json与operational-inputs.json为准"
    },
    "outputs": {
      "default_location": "agent_packet.supplied_inputs.static_default_result"
    },
    "algorithm": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/notebook/labs/p-ijklm/engine.js; P26 consumes QT24 outputs without rerunning simulation.",
    "views": [
      "逐事件保证金/自由现金",
      "有效采购成本与存续安排"
    ],
    "boundaries": [
      "真实规格不等于当前保证金或成交",
      "不得从终点补造未提供的资金路径",
      "输入无效即停止，不能沿用旧结果"
    ],
    "static_equivalent": {
      "figures": [
        "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/notebook/labs/p-ijklm/figures/P23-a.svg",
        "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/notebook/labs/p-ijklm/figures/P23-b.svg"
      ],
      "body_tables": true,
      "event_data": [
        {
          "path": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/notebook/labs/p-ijklm/shared/corn-cash-event-ledgers.csv",
          "branch": "core",
          "sha256": "9b778996982247177134a974e89d4099ff90b28187ff670a232607609d53e68f",
          "format": "csv",
          "public_access": "随本ZIP及复制教学包提供的UTF-8附件；非内部盘符"
        }
      ]
    },
    "input_controls": [
      {
        "key": "contracts",
        "label": "多头张数",
        "type": "number",
        "default": 3
      },
      {
        "key": "credit",
        "label": "事先承诺授信USD",
        "type": "selectnum",
        "default": 0,
        "options": [
          {
            "value": 0,
            "label": "无授信"
          },
          {
            "value": 2000,
            "label": "2,000（不足）"
          },
          {
            "value": 3000,
            "label": "3,000（足够此路径）"
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "input_uri": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/notebook/labs/p-ijklm/shared/final-shared-inputs.json"
  }
]
```

## Sources
- [Liquidity Preparedness for Margin and Collateral Calls — Final Report](https://www.fsb.org/uploads/P101224-1.pdf): 政策研究中的流动性压力分析；未读全报告，不作因果估计或约束性规则。

P-E 使用范围：Recommendations6–8的资源可用性、haircut、币种/地点/截止与操作准备；不是零售统一账户规则。

本批读取范围：抵押品资格、占用、haircut、币种、地点与及时到账。
- [Money Calculations for CME-cleared Futures and Options](https://www.cmegroup.com/clearing/files/CME-Money-Calculations-Futures-and-Options.pdf): 当日成交与期初头寸的结算现金及正常舍入；不采用无关分数报价例的印刷错误，不提供CL保证金水平。

本批读取范围：逐日价格变动、乘数、现金与结算口径。
- [Market turbulence and soaring margins: lessons from two recent episodes — Box A](https://www.bis.org/publications/perceptions-risk-and-policy-outlook-drive-markets_1.pdf): 假想一年期USD付固定与GBP收固定IRS；VM五日累计/IM五日closeout，讨论模型重校准与流动性。未复现Clarus曲线，不替代AECOM CSA或CL客户账户。

本批读取范围：VM与模型IM在压力中共同变化；VM图为五日累计。
- [Self-Study Guide to Hedging with Grain and Oilseed Futures and Options](https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/files/grain-oilseed-hedgers-guide.pdf): 采购与销售方向、价量原例及当地基差。

## Content relations
```json
[
  {
    "from": "zh-p23",
    "relation": "part_of",
    "to": "portfolio-implementation",
    "reason": "主要 topic 归属"
  },
  {
    "from": "zh-p23",
    "relation": "requires",
    "to": "zh-p08",
    "required_competence": "能够区分拥有资产与截止前可用现金。",
    "reason": "这项能力进入本篇主任务，而非推荐阅读顺序。"
  },
  {
    "from": "zh-p23",
    "relation": "uses_method",
    "to": "zh-p21",
    "reason": "调用局部概念；本篇同时给出完成算例所需的最小说明。"
  },
  {
    "from": "zh-p23",
    "relation": "illustrated_by",
    "to": "p21-procurement",
    "reason": "同一冻结对象和明确身份的算例。"
  },
  {
    "from": "zh-p23",
    "relation": "illustrated_by",
    "to": "p23-setup",
    "reason": "同一冻结对象和明确身份的算例。"
  },
  {
    "from": "p23-setup",
    "relation": "supported_by",
    "to": "MP-CME-GRAIN",
    "reason": "采购与销售方向、价量原例及当地基差。",
    "locator": "ch2 printed pp9–14 / PDF pp11–16；ch3 printed pp17–22 / PDF pp19–24；margin pp6–7",
    "scope": "采购与销售方向、价量原例及当地基差。"
  },
  {
    "from": "p23-recursion",
    "relation": "supported_by",
    "to": "MD-S05",
    "reason": "逐日价格变动、乘数、现金与结算口径。",
    "locator": "pp1–3普通期货变动现金完整单元",
    "scope": "逐日价格变动、乘数、现金与结算口径。"
  },
  {
    "from": "p23-reality",
    "relation": "supported_by",
    "to": "MD-S08",
    "reason": "VM与模型IM在压力中共同变化；VM图为五日累计。",
    "locator": "Box A printed pp5–6，Graph A1及图注",
    "scope": "VM与模型IM在压力中共同变化；VM图为五日累计。"
  },
  {
    "from": "p23-reality",
    "relation": "supported_by",
    "to": "MA-FSB",
    "reason": "抵押品资格、占用、haircut、币种、地点与及时到账。",
    "locator": "§3.3 printed pp18–20 / PDF pp22–24，Recommendations6–8",
    "scope": "抵押品资格、占用、haircut、币种、地点与及时到账。"
  },
  {
    "from": "p23-reality",
    "relation": "illustrated_by",
    "to": "EXP-P23-LIQUIDITY",
    "reason": "用一条玉米采购账完整重放VM、可用资金、承诺融资与资金不足后的平仓。"
  }
]
```

## Related entries
