# 行业分析综合带读：从结构到经营路径
把真实售电、发电构成、市场组织和资本计划连成有条件的行业分析。
Entry: zh-ei16 | Node: EI-16 | Language: zh | Editorial revision: 2026-09-21
## Teaching instructions
你正在教授EI-16《行业分析综合带读：从结构到经营路径》，采用内容版本2026-09-21-review-v2，当前范围：本篇完整学习单元。
先使用工具实际读取当前required_readings列出的公开原文完整单元，核对标题、版本、表头、单位、脚注和适用范围。来源清单或作者先前读过不等于你本次读过；runtime_reading_log初始为空，按实际结果填写，不预填成功。网页太大时用按页/文本范围的工具；不要用搜索节选顶替完整单元。读取失败时只说明具体缺口并尝试同机构/作者对应版本的开放正文，不能声称已完成依赖该原文的讲解。
完成读取后，按学习者已有水平选择直接讲解、推导或互动，不强迫重学已掌握的四则运算。诊断任务：先重建售电和发电两个增速，再解释天然气发电下降与总发电上升如何同时成立；沿公司合同写下一步所需证据。
沿随包完整正文推进一个完整推理任务：先结构和变量，再真实材料/模型设定，再推导和比较，最后迁移与反馈。真实观察、作者估计、本站教学参数必须保持各自身份。通过标准：六项发电数与总计重排一致，2025 preliminary、86GW计划量不混，至少两种交易结构产生不同公司路径。
使用随包实验的相同输入、算法和静态结果。你可以改变教学参数，但先声明改变哪一条件；不改写冻结观察值，不编造未取得的论文曲线。解释题和迁移题的完整解析已随正文提供，先让读者作答，再对照推理而非只报分数。
额外约定：EI-10年化不是付息流水；EI-11没有未定义衍生品；EI-12信用额度不得计入30天来源；EI-13基期产出权重；EI-15分支来源仅随所选分支读取；EI-16需求与发电覆盖不同；EI-17 Figure7/9不是同一实验；EI-18来源尺度疑点不替作者静默修正。只适用当前篇相关项。
Before substantive teaching, actually retrieve every required reading unit for the selected scope. Read its complete designated section, including necessary assumptions, tables and footnotes. A working URL or an editorial access date is not a runtime reading receipt. Record the actual version, location, scope and what it supports. If unavailable, use a previously verified equivalent source; if the required unit remains unavailable, identify that gap rather than teach it from memory. Start runtime_reading_log empty. Once reading is complete, use a substantive diagnostic or follow the reader's request for direct explanation. Advance one complete reasoning task at a time; skip mastered basics. Distinguish original facts, supplied teaching assumptions and inference.
## Required readings and runtime protocol
```json
{
"entry_id": "zh-ei16",
"node_id": "EI-16",
"content_version": "2026-09-21-review-v2",
"export_mode": "public",
"selected_branch": "all",
"audience": "有微积分、线性代数和基本概率基础的高年级本科生至研究生",
"learning_task": "从2024/2025电力原表构造三条路径，并迁移到设备商和制造业证据。",
"required_readings": [
{
"source_id": "EIDEF-S19A",
"title": "Table 5.1 Sales of Electricity to Ultimate Customers",
"authors": [
"EIA"
],
"version": "Electric Power Monthly；data June2026；release2026-08-26",
"access": {
"kind": "site_body",
"uri": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_1",
"verified_access_at": "2026-09-21"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "2024/2025年度all sectors行与适用表注",
"scope": "所列具名单元全文，包含公式、表头、表注及本篇采用结论所需上下文；不要求无关章节。",
"purpose": "2024 final、2025 preliminary；销售账单期间与发电自然月/覆盖不同。冻结行数值保留，不借用另一个923 final标签。"
},
"supports": "2024 final、2025 preliminary；销售账单期间与发电自然月/覆盖不同。冻结行数值保留，不借用另一个923 final标签。",
"id": "EI-16-READ-1",
"retrieved_at": "2026-09-21"
},
{
"source_id": "EIDEF-S19B",
"title": "Table 5.2 Revenue from Sales of Electricity to Ultimate Customers",
"authors": [
"EIA"
],
"version": "Electric Power Monthly；data June2026；release2026-08-26",
"access": {
"kind": "site_body",
"uri": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_2",
"verified_access_at": "2026-09-21"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "2025年度all sectors行与适用表注",
"scope": "所列具名单元全文，包含公式、表头、表注及本篇采用结论所需上下文；不要求无关章节。",
"purpose": "2024 final、2025 preliminary；销售账单期间与发电自然月/覆盖不同。冻结行数值保留，不借用另一个923 final标签。"
},
"supports": "2024 final、2025 preliminary；销售账单期间与发电自然月/覆盖不同。冻结行数值保留，不借用另一个923 final标签。",
"id": "EI-16-READ-2",
"retrieved_at": "2026-09-21"
},
{
"source_id": "EIDEF-S19C",
"title": "Table 1.1 Net Generation by Energy Source: Total (All Sectors)",
"authors": [
"EIA"
],
"version": "Electric Power Monthly；data June2026；release2026-08-26",
"access": {
"kind": "site_body",
"uri": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_1_1",
"verified_access_at": "2026-09-21"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "2024/2025年度煤/气/核/水/utility solar/utility total列与表注",
"scope": "所列具名单元全文，包含公式、表头、表注及本篇采用结论所需上下文；不要求无关章节。",
"purpose": "2024 final、2025 preliminary。本篇取Table1.1的Generation at Utility Scale Facilities列组；所列utility-scale solar与utility-scale total不包含右侧estimated small-scale solar列。零售售电与发电覆盖不同，不能强求总量相等。"
},
"supports": "2024 final、2025 preliminary。本篇取Table1.1的Generation at Utility Scale Facilities列组；所列utility-scale solar与utility-scale total不包含右侧estimated small-scale solar列。零售售电与发电覆盖不同，不能强求总量相等。",
"id": "EI-16-READ-3",
"retrieved_at": "2026-09-21"
},
{
"source_id": "EIBC-S05A",
"title": "New U.S. electric generating capacity expected to reach a record high in 2026",
"authors": [
"U.S. Energy Information Administration"
],
"version": "2026-02-20; December2025 inventory",
"access": {
"kind": "site_body",
"uri": "https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67205",
"verified_access_at": "2026-09-21"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "86GW planned/if realized，2025已新增53GW段及来源标签",
"scope": "所列具名单元全文，包含公式、表头、表注及本篇采用结论所需上下文；不要求无关章节。",
"purpose": "计划容量并非实际投运或MWh发电，不计算两年度的项目兑现率。"
},
"supports": "计划容量并非实际投运或MWh发电，不计算两年度的项目兑现率。",
"id": "EI-16-READ-4",
"retrieved_at": "2026-09-21"
},
{
"source_id": "EIBC-S05B",
"title": "Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory (EIA-860M)",
"authors": [
"EIA"
],
"version": "方法页访问2026-09-21",
"access": {
"kind": "site_body",
"uri": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860m/index.php",
"verified_access_at": "2026-09-21"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "工作簿列表前：preliminary、existing/proposed、revision及not capacity commitments说明",
"scope": "所列具名单元全文，包含公式、表头、表注及本篇采用结论所需上下文；不要求无关章节。",
"purpose": "月度库存含现有与拟建项目，估计可修订；没有读取状态码就不造状态码交互。"
},
"supports": "月度库存含现有与拟建项目，估计可修订；没有读取状态码就不造状态码交互。",
"id": "EI-16-READ-5",
"retrieved_at": "2026-09-21"
},
{
"source_id": "EIDEF-S18",
"title": "Electric Power Markets",
"authors": [
"FERC"
],
"version": "页面更新2025-03-27，访问2026-09-21",
"access": {
"kind": "site_body",
"uri": "https://www.ferc.gov/electric-power-markets",
"verified_access_at": "2026-09-21"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "National Overview、PJM、Southeast完整具名段",
"scope": "所列具名单元全文，包含公式、表头、表注及本篇采用结论所需上下文；不要求无关章节。",
"purpose": "传统垂直一体化、双边交易和ISO/RTO组织的批发交易不同；不据此计算统一电价弹性。"
},
"supports": "传统垂直一体化、双边交易和ISO/RTO组织的批发交易不同；不据此计算统一电价弹性。",
"id": "EI-16-READ-6",
"retrieved_at": "2026-09-21"
},
{
"source_id": "EIBC-S07M",
"title": "Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders: Methodology",
"authors": [
"U.S. Census Bureau"
],
"version": "采用单元未显示发表/修订日；2026-09-21访问",
"access": {
"kind": "pdf_full_text",
"uri": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/Web_Methodology.pdf",
"verified_access_at": "2026-09-21"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "Estimation pp.2–3；Seasonal Adjustment pp.3–4；Reliability p.4",
"scope": "所列具名单元全文，包含公式、表头、表注及本篇采用结论所需上下文；不要求无关章节。",
"purpose": "新订单由出货与未完成订单月差构造；季调亦然，含取消/修改。381是定义性桥，不是3项独立观察。"
},
"supports": "新订单由出货与未完成订单月差构造；季调亦然，含取消/修改。381是定义性桥，不是3项独立观察。",
"id": "EI-16-READ-7",
"retrieved_at": "2026-09-21"
},
{
"source_id": "EI-S06-M3-202605",
"title": "M3 Full Report — May2026",
"authors": [
"U.S. Census Bureau"
],
"version": "2026-07-02 release; CB26-104 M3-2(26)-05",
"access": {
"kind": "pdf_full_text",
"uri": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/historical_data/pressreleases/prel/2026/may26prel.pdf",
"verified_access_at": "2026-09-21"
},
"required_unit": {
"locator": "PDFp1身份；pp6–9 Tables1–4 Construction machinery row及脚注",
"scope": "所列具名单元全文，包含公式、表头、表注及本篇采用结论所需上下文；不要求无关章节。",
"purpose": "April revised / May preliminary；SA百万美元；381定义性订单桥、存货+66分开。"
},
"supports": "April revised / May preliminary；SA百万美元；381定义性订单桥、存货+66分开。",
"id": "EI-16-READ-8",
"retrieved_at": "2026-09-21"
}
],
"optional_readings": [],
"runtime_reading_log": [],
"supplied_inputs": {
"frozen_source_version": "2026-09-21-ei-defgh-preflight-final",
"node": {
"experiment_id": "exp-ei16-industry-path",
"source_release": "EIA Electric Power Monthly, data for June 2026, released 2026-08-26",
"retail_sales": {
"2024_thousand_MWh_final": 3975382,
"2025_thousand_MWh_preliminary": 4058007,
"growth_pct": 2.0784166150573657
},
"generation_Table_1_1_thousand_MWh": {
"2024_status": "final",
"2025_status": "preliminary",
"2024": {
"coal": 652156,
"natural_gas": 1869902,
"nuclear": 781865,
"hydro": 242896,
"utility_scale_solar": 219834,
"utility_scale_total": 4308634
},
"2025": {
"coal": 737151,
"natural_gas": 1807338,
"nuclear": 784781,
"hydro": 247023,
"utility_scale_solar": 295671,
"utility_scale_total": 4429502
},
"derived_growth_pct": {
"coal": 13.03292463766339,
"natural_gas": -3.345843792883263,
"nuclear": 0.37295441028821763,
"hydro": 1.6990810882023588,
"utility_scale_solar": 34.49739348781353,
"utility_scale_total": 2.8052510377999162
}
},
"teaching_use": {
"actual_supply_evidence": "EPM Table 1.1 exact annual rows by energy source",
"comparison": "2025 retail-sales growth and utility-scale generation growth are different series with different coverage/timing; do not force equality",
"alternative_explanation_example": "utility-scale generation rose while natural-gas generation fell and coal/solar generation rose, so system mix can change even when total demand rises"
},
"planned_capacity_2026_GW": 86,
"planned_capacity_status": "planned_if_realized_not_commitment",
"form_923_final_note": "A later 2025 Form 923 annual final release exists, but its final status is not transferred to EPM retail-sales/revenue or to this 2026-08-26 EPM Table 1.1 vintage."
},
"experiments": [
{
"id": "exp-ei16-industry-path",
"node_id": "EI-16",
"title": "售电、发电结构与经营路径",
"anchor": "ei16-capital",
"method": "industry",
"controls": [
{
"key": "region",
"label": "假定交易情形",
"default": "rto",
"min": 0,
"max": 100,
"step": 1,
"kind": "select",
"options": [
[
"rto",
"RTO内现货/合同敞口"
],
[
"integrated",
"费率/成本回收情形"
],
[
"supplier",
"设备供应商"
]
]
}
],
"inputs": {
"region": "rto"
},
"algorithm": "EPM1.1五项能源与总量只读；其余净额=总量−五项，逐项同比=(2025/2024−1)。地区按钮只改变定性条件路径，不生造价格弹性。86GW另列planned。",
"static_equivalent": "发电总量4,308,634→4,429,502千MWh，+2.8052510%；售电+2.0784166%；天然气下降、煤/太阳能上升。其余净额541981/557538。",
"source_ids": [
"EIDEF-S19A",
"EIDEF-S19B",
"EIDEF-S19C",
"EIBC-S05A",
"EIBC-S05B",
"EIDEF-S18",
"EIBC-S07M",
"EI-S06-M3-202605"
],
"identity": "observed_and_derived",
"description": "售电、发电结构与经营路径",
"outputs": {
"region": "rto",
"rows": [
{
"key": "coal",
"label": "煤炭",
"y2024": 652156,
"y2025": 737151,
"growth": 13.03292463766339
},
{
"key": "natural_gas",
"label": "天然气",
"y2024": 1869902,
"y2025": 1807338,
"growth": -3.345843792883263
},
{
"key": "nuclear",
"label": "核能",
"y2024": 781865,
"y2025": 784781,
"growth": 0.37295441028821763
},
{
"key": "hydro",
"label": "常规水电",
"y2024": 242896,
"y2025": 247023,
"growth": 1.6990810882023588
},
{
"key": "utility_scale_solar",
"label": "公用事业规模太阳能",
"y2024": 219834,
"y2025": 295671,
"growth": 34.49739348781353
},
{
"key": "residual",
"label": "其余净额（重排）",
"y2024": 541981,
"y2025": 557538,
"growth": 2.8703958256839357
}
],
"totals": [
4308634,
4429502
],
"growth": 2.8052510377999162,
"salesGrowth": 2.0784166150573657,
"plannedGW": 86,
"plannedIdentity": "2026计划，if realized；不是发电量",
"path": "分时可用出力 → 现货/长期合同 → 燃料与对冲 → 净收入"
}
}
]
},
"static_equivalents": [
{
"experiment_id": "exp-ei16-industry-path",
"text": "发电总量4,308,634→4,429,502千MWh，+2.8052510%；售电+2.0784166%；天然气下降、煤/太阳能上升。其余净额541981/557538。",
"outputs": {
"region": "rto",
"rows": [
{
"key": "coal",
"label": "煤炭",
"y2024": 652156,
"y2025": 737151,
"growth": 13.03292463766339
},
{
"key": "natural_gas",
"label": "天然气",
"y2024": 1869902,
"y2025": 1807338,
"growth": -3.345843792883263
},
{
"key": "nuclear",
"label": "核能",
"y2024": 781865,
"y2025": 784781,
"growth": 0.37295441028821763
},
{
"key": "hydro",
"label": "常规水电",
"y2024": 242896,
"y2025": 247023,
"growth": 1.6990810882023588
},
{
"key": "utility_scale_solar",
"label": "公用事业规模太阳能",
"y2024": 219834,
"y2025": 295671,
"growth": 34.49739348781353
},
{
"key": "residual",
"label": "其余净额（重排）",
"y2024": 541981,
"y2025": 557538,
"growth": 2.8703958256839357
}
],
"totals": [
4308634,
4429502
],
"growth": 2.8052510377999162,
"salesGrowth": 2.0784166150573657,
"plannedGW": 86,
"plannedIdentity": "2026计划，if realized；不是发电量",
"path": "分时可用出力 → 现货/长期合同 → 燃料与对冲 → 净收入"
}
}
],
"source_id_aliases": {
"EIDEF-S10": "BFDE-JEP",
"EIDEF-S14": "EIBC-S07M",
"EIDEF-S16A": "EIBC-S05A",
"EIDEF-S16B": "EIBC-S05B",
"EIDEF-S21": "EI-S06-M3-202605"
}
}
```
## Supplied entry
本篇任务：把边界、需求、供给、资本和交易安排组织成三条可检验的行业路径，再明确这些路径进入公司分析前还需要什么。主例是美国电力的2024／2025年度观察与一份2026年计划快照，约20分钟完成。
## 一、先把研究对象固定，而不是从增长率起步
我们研究美国全国电力活动，但全国总量不是一个统一交易市场。最终客户售电、各类机组发电、网络运行和新增项目分别由不同资料记录；一张统计表中的全国增长率，不能直接替代某地区某时段的电价或某公司的合同收入。
本例锁定 EIA *Electric Power Monthly* 的2026-08-26版本，数据至2026年6月。2024年度行标final，2025年度行标preliminary。我们使用三张表：5.1售电、5.2收入、1.1分能源净发电。新增项目另用EIA在2026-02-20发布、根据2025年12月月度库存资料形成的2026计划。不同快照不合并成“截至今天已经实现”。[^sales][^generation][^plan]
先画业务全貌：
最终客户用电与账单
形成各时段负荷要求
电网与可用发电资源
按地区制度、合同和调度供给
实际发电与购售电
经过账单和成本结算
不同参与者的收入／费用
资本形成是旁边的一条路径：项目计划、开发建设、接入与投运，最后才改变可用资源。资本路径可以因需求预期而提前启动，不是必须等售电完成之后才开始。
## 二、从售电量和收入重建需求侧观察
Table 5.1的全行业售电量，2024为3,975,382千MWh，2025为4,058,007千MWh。由此得到
$$
\Delta Q=82{,}625\ \text{千MWh},\qquad
g_Q=2.0784166\%.
$$
Table 5.2的2025售电收入553,285百万美元，与对应售电量相除，再按百万美元／千MWh换算，得到平均13.6344023美分/kWh。这是已发布收入与电量的比，不是边际费率曲线。[^sales]
我们到这里已经可以写一个正向事实判断：“在同一发布版本中，2025售电量比2024增加约2.08%。”但原因尚需进一步材料。天气、客户结构、产业负荷和价格反应都可能参与；一个年度总量不自动给出其中各自贡献。
这并不意味着需要等全部资料齐全才分析。可以先把候选路径写为条件句：若增量集中在持续运行的新负荷，它对资源可用时间的要求可能不同于短期天气负荷；若增量集中在某个受网络约束地区，则全国闲置容量未必能及时供给。下一步查分客户、分地区和分时段数据，是为区分这两种机制。
## 三、供给总量上升，内部结构却可以反向变化
Table 1.1给出同版能源分类的净发电量。本篇使用表中 **Generation at Utility Scale Facilities** 列组里的煤、天然气、核能、常规水电、太阳能及该列组总量；右侧另列的 estimated small-scale solar 不并入这里的公用事业规模总量。以下选取五项，并把其余公用事业规模项目合为“其余净额”，以便与该列组总量完整对上；“其余”是由总量减所列项目得到的教学重排，不另冒充原表能源名称。单位仍是千MWh。[^generation]
| 净发电来源 | 2024 final | 2025 preliminary | 同比 |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| 煤炭 | 652,156 | 737,151 | +13.0329% |
| 天然气 | 1,869,902 | 1,807,338 | −3.3458% |
| 核能 | 781,865 | 784,781 | +0.3730% |
| 常规水电 | 242,896 | 247,023 | +1.6991% |
| 公用事业规模太阳能 | 219,834 | 295,671 | +34.4974% |
| 其余净额：总量减上述五项 | 541,981 | 557,538 | 由总量约束重建 |
| 公用事业规模总量 | 4,308,634 | 4,429,502 | +2.8053% |
这里最值得解释的不是“所有发电都增长”，而是**总量增长与来源替代同时发生**。天然气减少62,564千MWh，煤炭增加84,995，太阳能增加75,837。其他来源也在变化，因此只挑增长最快的一项就解释总量，会遗漏反向贡献。
这个结构重排可以由多种条件产生：燃料相对成本、不同资源可用性、天气与水文、机组投运退役、地区网络约束等。本例没有据这些年度量识别单一原因。若想检验“燃料成本改变调度”，下一步应找匹配地区／期间的燃料交付成本、机组效率和运行情况；若想检验“新增可用太阳能改变发电结构”，就应查投运日期及实际出力时间。
售电增长2.0784%与净发电增长2.8053%并不需要相同。它们的覆盖、购电和跨境关系以及自然月／账单期间不同；原表也提示销售与发电不能机械逐月对齐。我们应先核统计对象，再讨论系统能量平衡，而不是为凑一致而改数。
## 四、市场组织决定行业变化怎样进入收入
FERC的National Overview区分传统垂直一体化区域与ISO／RTO组织的批发市场。PJM等组织以市场和调度安排协调批发交易；东南部等传统区域则有不同的公用事业及双边交易结构。这里采用的是FERC页面的组织说明，不做所有区域规则的完整审查。[^ferc]
对同一份全国需求增长，可以建立三条不同的企业映射：
| 参与者／合同情形 | 行业变化首先影响什么 | 公司分析前还需的资料 |
|---|---|---|
| 有现货敞口的发电业务 | 可发时段、出清价格与燃料成本 | 地区、机组可用率、对冲和售电合同 |
| 费率／成本回收安排下的公用事业 | 购电、燃料费用与获准回收时间 | 具体费率机制、监管资产及负荷结构 |
| 发电设备或建设供应商 | 项目下单、生产、交付和验收 | 中标份额、产品、交期、付款与取消条件 |
这里没有“哪个制度更好”的结论。分析只追踪不同安排允许哪些行动、怎样计价以及何时结算。甚至在同一个RTO内，长期合同与现货敞口的公司也可能面对不同收入响应；不能用一个地区标签代替合同。
## 五、项目计划是一条独立的时间路径
EIA 2026-02-20文章报告，开发商和运营商计划在2026年新增86GW公用事业规模容量，并明确使用“若实现”的条件；2025年已新增约53GW。月度发电设备库存说明也提示资料是可修订的估计，不是容量承诺。[^plan]
这两个数字分别来自不同年度、不同身份，$86/53$不是同一批项目兑现率。也不能把86GW直接加到2026发电量：GW是功率能力，发电量还需要投运时点、可用率、资源和运行小时。储能还要区分功率与可持续放电能量。
因此资本路径应写成：“计划中的哪些项目完成许可、采购、接网与投运，才在何时增加哪些地区的可用供给？”这句话中的每一个节点都有可以核查的资料。设备供应商的收入可能在设备交付确认时出现，发电收入则要等运行和售电；这也是行业资本支出总量不能直接变成一家供应商利润的原因。
实验显示同版需求和发电结构，允许切换地区交易情形，但不让地区按钮生成一个未经估计的电价弹性。图上选择一条路径，会展开其证据与仍需要的条件；实际表值保持不变。
## 六、形成三条路径，并做一次跨行业迁移
重建任务：用本篇材料完成需求、结构和资本三条路径，每条都写一个已观察事实、一项条件和一项下一步资料。
**完整示例：**
需求路径的事实是售电量+2.0784%；条件是新增需求落在哪些时段与地区；下一步取负荷曲线和地区售电。结构路径的事实是总发电+2.8053%而天然气−3.3458%；条件是燃料、资源和网络如何改变调度；下一步取匹配燃料成本与可用机组。资本路径的事实是86GW计划；条件是项目是否按期投运；下一步取具名项目进度。三条路径没有互相替代，各自解释不同环节。
计算任务：仅凭煤、气、核、水、太阳能五项能否算出总增长？怎样修复？
解析：不能，因为未列全原表能源和净额项目。先以总量减五项得到其余净额541,981和557,538，再与五项共同求和。真实原表总量受独立舍入影响，重排表的“其余”只是保持本篇算术闭合的残差分组，不能赋予它单一技术含义。
迁移到公司：某设备供应商说全国新增计划增加，所以自己明年收入也按同比增加。请给出四个需要补足的连接。
解析：至少包括项目对应哪些设备产品、公司中标份额、生产及客户交付时点、收入确认与付款条件；还应查取消、替代产品和供应约束。全国项目容量甚至不一定全属这家公司的产品市场。
迁移到工程机械：Census M3 2026年5月工程机械出货4,498、未完成订单由11,214增至11,595、新订单4,879、存货由10,593增至10,659，单位均为季调百万美元。重建一条证据链。[^m3]
解析：未完成订单增加381；季调新订单按出货加该变化构造，$4498+381=4879$，所以这不是三项独立需求证据。存货另增加66。可提出“交付落后于承诺”路径，但判断供给瓶颈仍需交期或产能资料；可提出“需求增加带来备货”路径，但仍需客户和存货结构资料。电力中的容量、流量与时点区分由此迁移成功，不能仅把“发电”标签换成“订单”。
[^sales]: EIDEF-S19A/B，EIA *Electric Power Monthly*，2026-08-26发布、data June 2026，Tables [5.1](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_1)及[5.2](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_2)，2024/2025年度行与表注。
[^generation]: EIDEF-S19C，同版EPM Table 1.1 “Net Generation by Energy Source: Total (All Sectors)”，年度2024/2025行；本篇只取 **Generation at Utility Scale Facilities** 列组下的煤、天然气、核能、常规水电、太阳能及其总量，不把右侧 estimated small-scale solar 列并入该总量。2025为preliminary。[原表](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_1_1)。
[^ferc]: EIDEF-S18，FERC “Electric Power Markets”，National Overview、PJM、Southeast具名单元，页面标2025-03-27更新，2026-09-21核读。[原文](https://www.ferc.gov/electric-power-markets)。
[^plan]: EIBC-S05A/B，EIA 2026-02-20 “New U.S. electric generating capacity expected to reach a record high in 2026”，2025年12月月度库存资料；[固定文章](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67205)及[EIA-860M方法](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860m/index.php)。
[^m3]: EI-S06-M3-202605与S14，Census M3 May 2026固定[四表](https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/historical_data/pressreleases/prel/2026/may26prel.pdf)，及[Methodology](https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/Web_Methodology.pdf) Estimation／Seasonal Adjustment。新订单构造的身份沿方法原文。
## Additional teaching material
### 图表的静态等价与默认结果
发电总量4,308,634→4,429,502千MWh，+2.8052510%；售电+2.0784166%；天然气下降、煤/太阳能上升。其余净额541981/557538。
```json
{
"region": "rto",
"rows": [
{
"key": "coal",
"label": "煤炭",
"y2024": 652156,
"y2025": 737151,
"growth": 13.03292463766339
},
{
"key": "natural_gas",
"label": "天然气",
"y2024": 1869902,
"y2025": 1807338,
"growth": -3.345843792883263
},
{
"key": "nuclear",
"label": "核能",
"y2024": 781865,
"y2025": 784781,
"growth": 0.37295441028821763
},
{
"key": "hydro",
"label": "常规水电",
"y2024": 242896,
"y2025": 247023,
"growth": 1.6990810882023588
},
{
"key": "utility_scale_solar",
"label": "公用事业规模太阳能",
"y2024": 219834,
"y2025": 295671,
"growth": 34.49739348781353
},
{
"key": "residual",
"label": "其余净额（重排）",
"y2024": 541981,
"y2025": 557538,
"growth": 2.8703958256839357
}
],
"totals": [
4308634,
4429502
],
"growth": 2.8052510377999162,
"salesGrowth": 2.0784166150573657,
"plannedGW": 86,
"plannedIdentity": "2026计划，if realized；不是发电量",
"path": "分时可用出力 → 现货/长期合同 → 燃料与对冲 → 净收入"
}
```
## Experiment inputs and static equivalents
```json
[
{
"id": "exp-ei16-industry-path",
"node_id": "EI-16",
"title": "售电、发电结构与经营路径",
"anchor": "ei16-capital",
"method": "industry",
"controls": [
{
"key": "region",
"label": "假定交易情形",
"default": "rto",
"min": 0,
"max": 100,
"step": 1,
"kind": "select",
"options": [
[
"rto",
"RTO内现货/合同敞口"
],
[
"integrated",
"费率/成本回收情形"
],
[
"supplier",
"设备供应商"
]
]
}
],
"inputs": {
"region": "rto"
},
"algorithm": "EPM1.1五项能源与总量只读；其余净额=总量−五项，逐项同比=(2025/2024−1)。地区按钮只改变定性条件路径，不生造价格弹性。86GW另列planned。",
"static_equivalent": "发电总量4,308,634→4,429,502千MWh，+2.8052510%；售电+2.0784166%；天然气下降、煤/太阳能上升。其余净额541981/557538。",
"source_ids": [
"EIDEF-S19A",
"EIDEF-S19B",
"EIDEF-S19C",
"EIBC-S05A",
"EIBC-S05B",
"EIDEF-S18",
"EIBC-S07M",
"EI-S06-M3-202605"
],
"identity": "observed_and_derived",
"description": "售电、发电结构与经营路径",
"outputs": {
"region": "rto",
"rows": [
{
"key": "coal",
"label": "煤炭",
"y2024": 652156,
"y2025": 737151,
"growth": 13.03292463766339
},
{
"key": "natural_gas",
"label": "天然气",
"y2024": 1869902,
"y2025": 1807338,
"growth": -3.345843792883263
},
{
"key": "nuclear",
"label": "核能",
"y2024": 781865,
"y2025": 784781,
"growth": 0.37295441028821763
},
{
"key": "hydro",
"label": "常规水电",
"y2024": 242896,
"y2025": 247023,
"growth": 1.6990810882023588
},
{
"key": "utility_scale_solar",
"label": "公用事业规模太阳能",
"y2024": 219834,
"y2025": 295671,
"growth": 34.49739348781353
},
{
"key": "residual",
"label": "其余净额（重排）",
"y2024": 541981,
"y2025": 557538,
"growth": 2.8703958256839357
}
],
"totals": [
4308634,
4429502
],
"growth": 2.8052510377999162,
"salesGrowth": 2.0784166150573657,
"plannedGW": 86,
"plannedIdentity": "2026计划，if realized；不是发电量",
"path": "分时可用出力 → 现货/长期合同 → 燃料与对冲 → 净收入"
},
"input_uri": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/notebook/labs/ei-defgh/inputs.json",
"implementation": {
"html": "/notebook/labs/ei-defgh/interactions.html?embed=1&experiment=exp-ei16-industry-path",
"engine": "/notebook/labs/ei-defgh/engine.js",
"static_available_without_js": true
}
}
]
```
## Sources
- [Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders · May 2026 Full Report](https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/historical_data/pressreleases/prel/2026/may26prel.pdf): Census 的 M3 报告把出货、新订单、未交订单和存货分开，分别描述已交付活动、期间订单流和期末余额。本文使用固定的2026年5月报告及其中4月比较列。
新订单按净额口径使用；不能再次机械扣除取消量。未交订单与月出货之比也不是每位客户实际等待时间。
EI-B 本批采用：工程机械固定4月修订/5月初值四表；美元百万、季调、未作价格调整。与CAT公司渠道范围不对账。 季调新订单 N=S+ΔB 为数据产品定义，详见 EIBC-S07M；381不是三个独立需求观测的互证。
本批采用：April revised / May preliminary；SA百万美元；381定义性订单桥、存货+66分开。
- [New U.S. electric generating capacity expected to reach a record high in 2026](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=67205): 固定文章报告2026计划新增86 GW与2025已新增53 GW。两值分属不同年度和状态，不是同批项目兑现率。
本批采用：计划容量并非实际投运或MWh发电，不计算两年度的项目兑现率。
- [Preliminary Monthly Electric Generator Inventory](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/eia860m/index.php): 月度存量/计划资料可修订，容量不等于设施承诺。仅用方法正文，不采用未读状态码或当前工作簿字段。
本批采用：月度库存含现有与拟建项目，估计可修订；没有读取状态码就不造状态码交互。
- [Methodology for Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders](https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/Web_Methodology.pdf): Estimation和Seasonal Adjustment Methodology规定：总体/季调新订单由出货加未完成订单期差构造；新订单估计包含既有订单取消和修改影响。
本批采用：新订单由出货与未完成订单月差构造；季调亦然，含取消/修改。381是定义性桥，不是3项独立观察。
- [Electric Power Markets](https://www.ferc.gov/electric-power-markets): 传统垂直一体化、双边交易和ISO/RTO组织的批发交易不同；不据此计算统一电价弹性。
- [Table 5.1 Sales of Electricity to Ultimate Customers](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_1): 2024 final、2025 preliminary；销售账单期间与发电自然月/覆盖不同。冻结行数值保留，不借用另一个923 final标签。
- [Table 5.2 Revenue from Sales of Electricity to Ultimate Customers](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_2): 2024 final、2025 preliminary；销售账单期间与发电自然月/覆盖不同。冻结行数值保留，不借用另一个923 final标签。
- [Table 1.1 Net Generation by Energy Source: Total (All Sectors)](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_1_1): 2024 final、2025 preliminary。本篇取Table1.1的Generation at Utility Scale Facilities列组；所列utility-scale solar与utility-scale total不包含右侧estimated small-scale solar列。零售售电与发电覆盖不同，不能强求总量相等。
## Content relations
```json
[
{
"from": "zh-ei16",
"relation": "part_of",
"to": "industry-evidence",
"reason": "主要 topic 归属"
},
{
"from": "zh-ei16",
"relation": "requires",
"to": "zh-ei15",
"reason": "能为经营问题挑选有职责的指标",
"required_competence": "能为经营问题挑选有职责的指标"
},
{
"from": "zh-ei16",
"relation": "uses_method",
"to": "zh-ei06",
"reason": "市场边界"
},
{
"from": "zh-ei16",
"relation": "uses_method",
"to": "zh-ei04",
"reason": "有效供给"
},
{
"from": "zh-ei16",
"relation": "uses_method",
"to": "zh-ei08",
"reason": "计划到投运"
},
{
"from": "zh-ei16",
"relation": "uses_method",
"to": "zh-ei09",
"reason": "制造业指标迁移"
},
{
"from": "zh-ei16",
"relation": "informs",
"to": "zh-p04",
"reason": "向有条件公司业务模型提供行业输入"
},
{
"from": "ei16-demand",
"relation": "supported_by",
"to": "EIDEF-S19A",
"reason": "2024 final、2025 preliminary；销售账单期间与发电自然月/覆盖不同。冻结行数值保留，不借用另一个923 final标签。",
"locator": "2024/2025年度all sectors行与适用表注",
"scope": "对应段采用的具名单元，不扩称完整论文复现",
"at_section": "ei16-demand"
},
{
"from": "ei16-demand",
"relation": "supported_by",
"to": "EIDEF-S19B",
"reason": "2024 final、2025 preliminary；销售账单期间与发电自然月/覆盖不同。冻结行数值保留，不借用另一个923 final标签。",
"locator": "2025年度all sectors行与适用表注",
"scope": "对应段采用的具名单元，不扩称完整论文复现",
"at_section": "ei16-demand"
},
{
"from": "ei16-supply",
"relation": "supported_by",
"to": "EIDEF-S19C",
"reason": "2024 final、2025 preliminary。本篇取Table1.1的Generation at Utility Scale Facilities列组；所列utility-scale solar与utility-scale total不包含右侧estimated small-scale solar列。零售售电与发电覆盖不同，不能强求总量相等。",
"locator": "2024/2025年度煤/气/核/水/utility solar/utility total列与表注",
"scope": "对应段采用的具名单元，不扩称完整论文复现",
"at_section": "ei16-supply"
},
{
"from": "ei16-contract",
"relation": "supported_by",
"to": "EIDEF-S18",
"reason": "传统垂直一体化、双边交易和ISO/RTO组织的批发交易不同；不据此计算统一电价弹性。",
"locator": "National Overview、PJM、Southeast完整具名段",
"scope": "对应段采用的具名单元，不扩称完整论文复现",
"at_section": "ei16-contract"
},
{
"from": "ei16-capital",
"relation": "supported_by",
"to": "EIBC-S05A",
"reason": "计划容量并非实际投运或MWh发电，不计算两年度的项目兑现率。",
"locator": "86GW planned/if realized，2025已新增53GW段及来源标签",
"scope": "对应段采用的具名单元，不扩称完整论文复现",
"at_section": "ei16-capital"
},
{
"from": "ei16-capital",
"relation": "supported_by",
"to": "EIBC-S05B",
"reason": "月度库存含现有与拟建项目，估计可修订；没有读取状态码就不造状态码交互。",
"locator": "工作簿列表前：preliminary、existing/proposed、revision及not capacity commitments说明",
"scope": "对应段采用的具名单元，不扩称完整论文复现",
"at_section": "ei16-capital"
},
{
"from": "ei16-exercises",
"relation": "supported_by",
"to": "EIBC-S07M",
"reason": "新订单由出货与未完成订单月差构造；季调亦然，含取消/修改。381是定义性桥，不是3项独立观察。",
"locator": "Estimation pp.2–3；Seasonal Adjustment pp.3–4；Reliability p.4",
"scope": "对应段采用的具名单元，不扩称完整论文复现",
"at_section": "ei16-exercises"
},
{
"from": "ei16-exercises",
"relation": "supported_by",
"to": "EI-S06-M3-202605",
"reason": "April revised / May preliminary；SA百万美元；381定义性订单桥、存货+66分开。",
"locator": "PDFp1身份；pp6–9 Tables1–4 Construction machinery row及脚注",
"scope": "对应段采用的具名单元，不扩称完整论文复现",
"at_section": "ei16-exercises"
},
{
"from": "ei16-capital",
"relation": "illustrated_by",
"to": "exp-ei16-industry-path",
"reason": "发电总量4,308,634→4,429,502千MWh，+2.8052510%；售电+2.0784166%；天然气下降、煤/太阳能上升。其余净额541981/557538。",
"at_section": "ei16-capital"
}
]
```
## Related entries
## Optional reading path
读懂一个行业: step 10/10
构建三条可检验路径，并明确转入公司分析还缺什么资料。