Candidate pool — not held but in active monitoring. Append-only; on status change (Promoted / Dropped / Reset) move the entry to the Closed section at the bottom.

Trigger mechanism: when a ticker is mentioned in conversation, silent-grep this file; on hit, load thesis stub + trigger conditions into reply context.

Active candidates

ACN — re-entry candidate

  • Status: Monitoring price trigger
  • Thesis stub: Market prices in AI capturing 30–40% of ACN consulting/IT services share; based on hands-on AI research I judge that take-rate is implausible → upside in ACN
  • Trigger conditions:
    • Primary: Price ≤ $150
    • Secondary: + empirical evidence on AI-in-consulting (is it actually substituting ACN-style services?)
  • Layer signal at entry: build-up (NOT test-tier — prior conviction from previous hold)
  • Sizing intent: TBD (based on EV at trigger time vs near-riskless)
  • Next review: 2026-08-17 OR price trigger
  • Date added: 2026-05-18

LDOS — deferred but monitored

  • Status: Deferred (5-round research 2026-05-17 concluded defer, NOT refute)
  • Thesis stub: FCF yield 10.4% + $48.4B backlog + Q1 BEAT real; but unfavorable political faction + EO discretionary buyback risk + Entrust integration overhang
  • Re-trigger conditions (any one sufficient):
    1. Faction environment shift (Trump 2.0 broader vendor base shift)
    2. CACI materially de-rates (27x → 18x) — narrative crack signal
    3. Catalyst-driven re-rate (hyperscaler grid contract / specific Pentagon endorsement)
    4. Price drop to $90-100 (Fwd PE 7-8x) for larger margin of safety
    5. Committee Green signal (broader regime shift)
  • Layer signal at entry: test-tier (lower-conviction restart)
  • Next review: 2026-08-17 OR re-trigger
  • Date added: 2026-05-17

Closed (historical archive)

(empty — Promoted / Dropped / Reset entries are moved here)

Maintenance

  • At quarterly review, check whether each active candidate’s trigger conditions are still valid; stale trigger → Reset
  • New candidates must include: thesis stub + trigger conditions + Layer signal at entry + next review date + evidence that the Interconnections framework has been applied
  • Reject / Drop reason must be explicit (e.g., “thesis weakened by X” / “better alternative available”)