{ "version": "2026-09-21.EI-A.lab-2", "source_path": "docs/production/20260921/drafts/ei-a-v2/notebook-EI-A-20260921-xhigh-review-v2/shared-inputs.json", "source": { "format": "notebook-ei-shared-inputs-1", "batch": "EI-A", "version": "2026-09-21-review-2", "cutoff": "2026-09-21", "meaning": "数字案例的同源输入；observed与teaching_assumption严格分开，不作为真实估计模型", "sources": { "EI-S01-CORE-U7": { "url": "https://books.core-econ.org/the-economy-v1/book/text/07.html", "version": "The Economy 1.0", "scope": "§7.1、§7.3、§7.8与图注" }, "EI-S02-MIT-L7-2022": { "url": "https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/14-271-industrial-organization-i-fall-2022/mit14_271_f22_lec7slides.pdf", "author": "Tobias Salz", "version": "Fall2022 Lecture7", "scope": "slides2–11、19–21；后者PDF物理页32–42" }, "EI-S03-BEA-INDUSTRIES": { "url": "https://www.bea.gov/resources/learning-center/what-to-know-industries", "version": "页面2021-02-24更新，2026-09-21取得", "scope": "正文完整短页" }, "EI-S04-EIA-2024": { "url": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/", "version": "with data for2024", "released_at": "2025-10-16", "tables": { "2.5": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_02_05.html", "2.6": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_02_06.html", "2.7": "https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_02_07.html" } }, "EI-S05-IEA-2025": { "url": "https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/7c671ef6-2947-4e87-beea-af0e1288e1d7/Electricity2025.pdf", "version": "Electricity2025", "scope": "印刷pp57–60及p61首段" }, "EI-S06-M3-202605": { "url": "https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/historical_data/pressreleases/prel/2026/may26prel.pdf", "version": "CB26-104 M3-2(26)-05", "released_at": "2026-07-02T10:00:00-04:00", "raw_pdf_snapshot_included": false, "scope": "fixed report p1 identity; p3–4 definitions; p6–9 Tables1–4 construction machinery rows/notes", "lead_primary_check": { "fixed_pdf_obtained": true, "bytes": 338576, "pages": 12, "checked_pages": [ 1, 6, 7, 8, 9 ], "visual_table_pages": [ 6, 7, 8, 9 ], "review_record": "industry-census-primary-check.md" }, "author_xhigh_reopen": "Public fixed-PDF fetch was not treated as successful; author used the Lead primary-check record and kept review identities separate.", "raw_pdf_snapshot_in_public_pack": false }, "EI-S07-TIEDEMANN-2024V1": { "url": "https://arxiv.org/pdf/2409.15530v1", "version": "arXiv v1", "cover_date": "2024-09-19", "submitted_at": "2024-09-23", "scope": "方法警示；无经验系数输入" } }, "cases": [ { "id": "CASE-EI-US-POWER-2024", "status": "observed", "source_id": "EI-S04-EIA-2024", "period": [ "2023", "2024" ], "vintage": "2024 annual", "released_at": "2025-10-16", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "geography": "50 U.S. states and District of Columbia", "rows": [ { "year": 2023, "residential_sales_thousand_MWh": 1450025, "residential_revenue_million_USD": 231993, "published_residential_price_cent_per_kWh": 16 }, { "year": 2024, "residential_sales_thousand_MWh": 1482874, "residential_revenue_million_USD": 244367, "published_residential_price_cent_per_kWh": 16.48 } ], "end_use_sales_2024_thousand_MWh": { "residential": 1482874, "commercial": 1450941, "industrial": 1034584, "transportation": 6983, "total": 3975382 }, "formulas": { "sales_growth_pct": "100*(1482874/1450025-1)", "published_price_growth_pct": "100*(16.48/16.00-1)", "unidentified_change_ratio": "(1482874/1450025-1)/(16.48/16.00-1)", "reconstructed_price_2024_cent_per_kWh": "(244367*1000000)/(1482874*1000*1000)*100", "residential_composition_pct": "100*1482874/3975382" }, "expected": { "sales_growth_pct": 2.265409217082464, "published_price_growth_pct": 3, "unidentified_change_ratio": 0.7551364056941547, "reconstructed_price_2024_cent_per_kWh": 16.479282798133895, "reconstructed_price_2023_cent_per_kWh": 15.999241392389786, "residential_composition_pct": 37.30142159923248 }, "limits": [ "部门构成不是企业份额", "均价不是个别客户边际电价", "年际共同变化不识别需求弹性" ] }, { "id": "CASE-EI-DE-POWER-2024", "status": "observed", "source_id": "EI-S05-IEA-2025", "period": [ "2024-11-05/2024-11-07", "2024-12-11/2024-12-12" ], "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "vintage": "Electricity2025 Supply", "extracts": [ { "locator": "p57 December event", "metric": "wind daily capacity factor", "date": "2024-12-12", "value_pct": 2, "approximate": true }, { "locator": "p57 comparator", "metric": "December average wind capacity factor", "period": "Decembers 2019–2023", "value_pct": 26, "approximate": true }, { "locator": "pp57–58 November event", "metric": "wind daily capacity factor", "date": "2024-11-06", "value_pct": 0.5, "approximate": true } ], "definitions": { "residual_load": "load-wind-solarPV", "available_dispatchable_capacity": "installed_dispatchable_capacity-outages" }, "limits": [ "没有逐小时原数列", "历史日均与历史月均不同窗口", "不用于校准合成60GW例子", "不据此认定停电或违法" ] }, { "id": "CASE-EI-US-CONSTRUCTION-MACHINERY-202605", "status": "observed", "source_id": "EI-S06-M3-202605", "period": "2026-04/2026-05", "released_at": "2026-07-02T10:00:00-04:00", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "unit": "million USD", "seasonally_adjusted": true, "price_adjusted": false, "new_orders_net_of_cancellations": true, "rows": [ { "month": "2026-04", "shipments": 4424, "net_new_orders": 4734, "end_unfilled_orders": 11214, "end_inventories": 10593, "status_in_selected_table": "revised" }, { "month": "2026-05", "shipments": 4498, "net_new_orders": 4879, "end_unfilled_orders": 11595, "end_inventories": 10659, "status_in_selected_table": "preliminary" } ], "locators": { "shipments": "p6 Table1 Construction machinery", "net_new_orders": "p7 Table2 Construction machinery", "end_unfilled_orders": "p8 Table3 Construction machinery", "end_inventories": "p9 Table4 Construction machinery" }, "formulas": { "net_flow_may": "4879-4498", "backlog_change_may": "11595-11214", "reconciliation_residual_may": "11595-11214-4879+4498", "inventory_to_monthly_shipments": "10659/4498" }, "expected": { "net_flow_may": 381, "backlog_change_may": 381, "reconciliation_residual_may": 0, "inventory_to_monthly_shipments": 2.3697198755002225 }, "limits": [ "净新订单不能再次扣取消", "一般桥保留取消、修订、范围与计量调整项", "余额局部相等不证明调整项在所有时期为零", "金额比不是设备数量、交期或财务存货天数", "调查面板不是概率抽样，公布单元格精确读取不等于抽样误差已量化" ] } ], "experiments": [ { "id": "EXP-EI-HHI-01", "status": "teaching_assumption", "unit": "synthetic same-period sales units", "formula": "shares_pct_i=100*sales_i/sum(sales); HHI=sum(shares_pct_i**2)", "convention": "percent squared, 0–10000", "states": [ { "boundary": "narrow", "ownership": "separate", "sales": [ 40, 35, 25 ], "denominator": 100, "shares_pct": [ 40, 35, 25 ], "HHI": 3450 }, { "boundary": "wide", "ownership": "separate", "sales": [ 40, 35, 25, 50, 50 ], "denominator": 200, "shares_pct": [ 20, 17.5, 12.5, 25, 25 ], "HHI": 2112.5 }, { "boundary": "narrow", "ownership": "A+B common owner", "sales": [ 75, 25 ], "denominator": 100, "shares_pct": [ 75, 25 ], "HHI": 6250 }, { "boundary": "wide", "ownership": "A+B common owner", "sales": [ 75, 25, 50, 50 ], "denominator": 200, "shares_pct": [ 37.5, 12.5, 25, 25 ], "HHI": 2812.5 } ], "domain": "nonnegative sales, positive total; invalid total rejected", "not_inferred": "market boundaries or actual market power" }, { "id": "EXP-EI-SUPPLY-DEMAND-01", "status": "teaching_assumption", "units": { "P": "synthetic currency/unit", "Q": "synthetic units/period", "u": "demand quantity shift", "v": "supply quantity shift" }, "input_domain": { "u": [ -20, 20 ], "v": [ -20, 20 ], "pFixed": [ 10, 30 ] }, "step": { "u": 1, "v": 1, "pFixed": 0.5 }, "formulas": { "demand": "100-2*P+u", "supply": "20+2*P+v", "equilibrium_P": "20+(u-v)/4", "equilibrium_Q": "60+(u+v)/2", "OLS_population_slope": "-2+4*Var(u)/(Var(u)+Var(v))" }, "conditions_OLS": "zero-mean uncorrelated u,v, finite variances with positive sum, bounded within the interior-solution domain; population linear projection, not an empirical estimate", "states": [ { "u": 0, "v": 0, "P": 20, "Q": 60 }, { "u": 20, "v": 0, "P": 25, "Q": 70 }, { "u": 0, "v": -20, "P": 25, "Q": 50 }, { "u": 10, "v": -10, "P": 25, "Q": 60 } ], "fixed_price_example": { "P": 25, "u": 0, "v": 0, "Qd": 50, "Qs": 70, "excess_supply": 20, "actual_trade_quantity": null }, "equilibrium_output_bounds": { "P": [ 10, 30 ], "Q": [ 40, 80 ] } }, { "id": "EXP-EI-FLEET-01", "status": "teaching_assumption", "units": "homogeneous machine units", "inputs": { "K0": 100, "delta": 0.1, "target": 110 }, "formulas": { "survivors": "(1-delta)*K0", "purchases": "max(0,target-survivors)", "next_K0": "survivors+purchases" }, "expected": { "purchase_period1": 20, "purchase_period2": 11, "purchase_growth_pct": -45 }, "conditions": [ "closed homogeneous fleet", "no purchases before decision", "sales/extra retirement/idle capacity not modeled", "target below survivors implies no purchase, not negative purchases" ] }, { "id": "EXP-EI-CAPACITY-01", "status": "teaching_assumption", "factory": { "inputs": { "design_per_week": 100, "availability": 0.8, "parts_limit": 70, "labor_limit": 90, "shipping_limit": 60, "opening_finished_stock": 0 }, "formula": "production=min(design*availability,parts_limit,labor_limit); deliveries=min(production+opening_finished_stock,shipping_limit)", "expected": { "production": 70, "deliveries": 60, "closing_finished_stock": 10 } }, "cost": { "inputs": { "F": 100, "c": 10, "k": 1, "K": 20, "P": 25 }, "conditions": "F unavoidable this period; k>0; price taker; 0<=q<=K", "formulas": { "q": "min(K,max(0,(P-c)/k))", "C": "F+c*q+k*q*q/2", "profit": "P*q-C" }, "expected": { "q": 15, "C": 362.5, "revenue": 375, "profit": 12.5 }, "states": [ { "F": 100, "c": 10, "k": 1, "K": 20, "P": 20, "q": 10, "profit": -50 }, { "F": 200, "c": 10, "k": 1, "K": 20, "P": 25, "q": 15, "profit": -87.5 } ] }, "power": { "inputs": { "L_GW": 60, "W_GW": 15, "K_GW": 50, "O_GW": 5, "M_GW": 0, "storage_power_GW": 2, "storage_energy_GWh": 8, "H_hours": 6 }, "conditions": [ "initial storage full", "no recharging", "no losses", "constant-load support window", "imports already deliverable", "network/ramping/reserve constraints omitted" ], "formulas": { "available_dispatch_GW": "K-O", "residual_load_GW": "L-W", "deficit_GW": "max(0,L-W-(K-O)-M)", "storage_GW": "min(storage_power,storage_energy/H,deficit)", "remaining_GW": "deficit-storage_GW", "ending_storage_GWh": "storage_energy-storage_GW*H" }, "states": [ { "name": "baseline", "W_GW": 15, "M_GW": 0, "H_hours": 6, "deficit_GW": 0, "storage_GW": 0, "remaining_GW": 0 }, { "name": "low-wind-no-imports", "W_GW": 5, "M_GW": 0, "H_hours": 6, "deficit_GW": 10, "storage_GW": 1.3333333333333333, "remaining_GW": 8.666666666666666 }, { "name": "low-wind-imports", "W_GW": 5, "M_GW": 5, "H_hours": 6, "deficit_GW": 5, "storage_GW": 1.3333333333333333, "remaining_GW": 3.666666666666667 }, { "name": "four-hour", "W_GW": 5, "M_GW": 5, "H_hours": 4, "deficit_GW": 5, "storage_GW": 2, "remaining_GW": 3 } ], "storage_to_fully_cover_5GW_6h": { "minimum_power_GW": 5, "minimum_energy_GWh": 30, "status": "necessary and sufficient only in this lossless constant-support model" } }, "orders_adjustment_exercise": { "opening": 11214, "net_new_orders": 4879, "cancellations_already_included": 121, "shipments": 4498, "adjustment": -100, "expected_closing": 11495, "formula": "opening+net_new_orders-shipments+adjustment" } }, { "id": "EXP-EI-VALUE-ADDED-01", "status": "teaching_assumption", "conditions": [ "three production stages, final stage assembly not retail resale", "no imports, taxes, inventory changes", "same period and valuation basis" ], "gross_output": [ 40, 100, 120 ], "intermediate_inputs": [ 0, 40, 100 ], "value_added": [ 40, 60, 20 ], "expected": { "gross_output_sum": 260, "intermediate_input_sum": 140, "value_added_sum": 120, "final_product_value": 120 } } ], "runtime_reading_log": [], "implementation": { "html": "specification only; not implemented", "paper_estimation": "not executed", "real_market_HHI": "not computed", "account_access": "none" } }, "implementation": { "inputs": "source is the complete, unchanged review-2 shared-inputs packet", "calculation": "engine.js; view.js serves both initial static markup and browser updates", "anchors": [ "ei06", "ei03", "ei04", "ei01", "ei02" ], "verified_source_record": "docs/production/20260921/review/industry-census-primary-check.md", "browser_acceptance": "Lead integration review pending" } }