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"equity_proceeds": 21.235174900459718, "net_interest": 24.02675144412514, "ebit": 73.37993618142012, "da": 100.81854448863636, "sbc": 29.0, "wc_cash": -32.0, "cash_tax": 15.0, "fees": 0.22000625352707087 } ] }, "bridge": { "aws_ev": 386.55825415769147, "retail_ev": 365.1482286334529, "cash": 31.8790067485007, "debt": 333.31999999999994, "finance_claims": 27.0548, "investment_net": 73.5, "other_claims": 0, "shares": 12.551806996018387, "common_equity": 496.71068953964516, "price": 39.57284315295868, "aws_multiple": 9, "retail_multiple": 12 } } }, "state_classification": { "business_states": [ "S", "N", "W", "X" ], "matrix": [ [ "Bull", "Bull", "Base", "Bear" ], [ "Bull", "Base", "Base", "Bear" ], [ "Base", "Bear", "Bear", "Tail" ], [ "Bear", "Bear", "Tail", "Tail" ] ], "row": "AWS", "column": "整合非AWS", "horizon": "2026-09-20可用信息下的2026H2–2029经营路径", "definitions": { "S": "采用/收入与资本转化较强；同时保留支出和企业响应", "N": "主要机制按研究基准兑现，仍承担竞争、资本及更新需要", "W": "兑现、单位经济或资本转化受挫，仍有经营与修复能力", "X": "客户融资/使用、既有能力或普通股权利严重受损" }, "boundary_rule": "先依业务条件定S/N/W/X，再按矩阵。Tail格优先、其次Bull与Bear、余格Base；不是按终价分档。原研究未给硬数字阈值；边界不清先记录未定类，不事后按股价改类。" }, "probability_evidence": [ { "stage": "机制起点", "weights": [ 0.24, 0.46, 0.24, 0.06 ], "reason": "两组大型正利润经营，资本扩张阶段；成功与失配先作粗对称判断", "identity": "研究起点，不是样本频率" }, { "stage": "资本与物理兑现", "weights": [ 0.2, 0.45, 0.28, 0.07 ], "reason": "前置建设、供电与使用时滞，提高失配权重" }, { "stage": "需求与存量留存", "weights": [ 0.29, 0.43, 0.23, 0.05 ], "reason": "最近三期需求加速及迁移摩擦支持需求持续；并不保证计费量" }, { "stage": "恢复及混合状态", "weights": [ 0.31, 0.44, 0.2, 0.05 ], "reason": "容纳修复、创新和业务不同时好坏的共同状态；采用的粗分布" } ], "identity_notes": { "market_debt": "期末有息借款余额（模型口径），不是未来债券市场公允价值", "cash": "期末账面可用现金/证券模型余额，经营保留未被支出", "finance_claims": "融资租赁及融资义务；与有息借款分列", "investment_net": "已扣模型实现税的非经营投资；不是流动性储备", "other_claims": "模型取0；未作全体潜在权利为零的审计结论", "pricing_range": "同一经营/资金路径的定价参数范围；不是置信区间或条件支持", "probability": "主观粗判断，不是统计后验；按钮操作不新增研究证据", "quarters": "每季已继承此前融资；融资前余额不是全期无融资轨迹，也不保证季内资金充足", "quote_vs_cutoff": "9月18日参考进入价格，9月20日研究信息截止；无实际成交或仅用9月18日信息的样本外回测声明。", "share_count_proxy": "11.0274十亿股是冻结模型规划代理：10.783普通股 + 0.2444 outstanding RSU；公司另披露普通股加全部 outstanding stock awards 对应股份约11.0十亿股。该代理不是官方完全稀释股数，也不是EPS加权平均股数。" }, "source_map": { "annual_operations": "operating-results.json::{state}.aws/retail", "quarters_and_capital": "model-results.json::scenarios.{state}.capital", "pricing": "sensitivity-results.json::pricing.{pricing_id}.prices/distributions", "alternatives": "sensitivity-results.json::operating.{named_key}", "weights": "model-inputs.json::probabilities.{weight_id}" }, "peers": { "GOOGL": { "title": "Alphabet全集团", "quote_date": "2026-09-18", "quote_time": "16:00 EDT", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-20", "earnings_period_end": "2026-06-30", "balance_sheet_date": "2026-06-30", "quote": 349.54, "fy_operating_income": 129.039, "current_h1_operating_income": 80.466, "prior_h1_operating_income": 61.877, "ttm_ebit": 147.628, "h1_annualized": 160.932, "vendor_ev": 4153.1912, "debt_book": 100.164, "finance_lease": 2.59, "operating_lease": 18.037, "preferred_depositary_shares_bn": 0.385, "preferred_per_depositary_usd": 50, "preferred_liquidation_proxy": 19.25, "nonmarketable_book": 131.461, "adjustments": [ { "label": "原冻结EV", "value": 4153.1912 }, { "label": "移除经营租赁", "value": -18.037 }, { "label": "优先权清算代理", "value": 19.25 } ], "uncertain_subtract_range": [ 0, 131.461 ], "full_cash_reconstruction": false, "limitations": "vendor EV为原研究观察并非当日完整不可变快照；非上市账面非税后现金；优先权清算额非市值；不能把集团参照当纯GCP。" }, "WMT": { "title": "Walmart全集团", "quote_date": "2026-09-18", "quote_time": "16:00 EDT", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-20", "earnings_period_end": "2026-07-31", "balance_sheet_date": "2026-07-31", "quote": 106.73, "fiscal_year_base_end": "2026-01-31", "fy_operating_income": 29.825, "current_h1_operating_income": 16.876, "prior_h1_operating_income": 14.421, "ttm_ebit": 32.28, "vendor_ev": 910.33, "common_market_cap": 846.77, "short_borrowings": 10.479, "current_long_debt": 3.47, "long_debt": 36.462, "debt_book": 50.411, "finance_lease_current": 0.88, "finance_lease_long": 5.952, "finance_lease": 6.832, "redeemable_nci": 0.293, "nonredeemable_nci": 6.268, "nci_book": 6.561, "cash": 11.529, "operating_lease": 16.512, "rebuilt_ev": 899.045, "vendor_wrong_ebit": 28.98, "vendor_wrong_multiple": 31.41, "vendor_debt": 75.092, "debt_with_all_leases": 73.755, "unreconciled_vendor_difference": 1.337, "adjustments": [ { "label": "普通股市值", "value": 846.77 }, { "label": "有息借款", "value": 50.411 }, { "label": "融资租赁", "value": 6.832 }, { "label": "非控制权益账面代理", "value": 6.561 }, { "label": "现金", "value": -11.529 } ], "limitations": "NCI用账面代理；未完全复原vendor debt定义；ROI调整后分子50.285不是经营利润32.280。" }, "MSFT": { "title": "Microsoft全集团盈利对照", "quote_date": "2026-09-18", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-20", "earnings_period_end": "2026-06-30", "balance_sheet_date": "2026-06-30", "quote": 493.78, "ttm_ebit": 155.237, "gaap_eps": 17.95, "adjusted_eps": 17.28, "use": "仅集团盈利/EPS口径对照；不发布未补读完整租赁单元的统一EV倍数图", "source": "FY2026官方业绩表" } }, "business_views": [ { "id": "AWS", "label": "AWS", "type": "reportable_segment_and_business", "group": "AWS", "reason": "独立分部收入/OI及资本资料；独立客户不是必要条件" }, { "id": "1P", "label": "自营商品", "type": "charging_business", "group": "nonAWS", "reason": "按商品收入确认，采购、存货与履约责任" }, { "id": "3P", "label": "第三方卖家服务", "type": "charging_business", "group": "nonAWS", "reason": "服务收费不是卖家GMV；履约资源与1P共享" }, { "id": "Ads", "label": "广告", "type": "charging_business", "group": "nonAWS", "reason": "收入已进入地域分部；依赖购物流量、库存和技术" }, { "id": "Prime", "label": "Prime/订阅关系", "type": "charging_business", "group": "nonAWS", "reason": "会费与配送/内容共同投入；不能再加一份相同留存价值" }, { "id": "International", "label": "国际", "type": "geography", "group": "nonAWS", "reason": "同一收费活动的地域视角，不是六收入类别之外的收入" }, { "id": "Fulfillment", "label": "履约网络", "type": "shared_resource", "group": "nonAWS", "reason": "同时服务自营、卖家和会员安排；另有已披露的服务收费" }, { "id": "TechnologyContent", "label": "技术/内容资源", "type": "shared_resource", "group": "shared_by_usage", "reason": "依据实际使用进入所属分部；不是额外可直接加总的EV" } ], "grouping_sensitivity": { "direction": "nonAWS_to_AWS", "delta_ebit_bn": 5, "fixed_multiples": [ 21, 22 ], "price_effect": -0.4425797086055198, "identity": "固定分组与倍数的分摊敏感性，不是重估或任意重组方向结论" }, "dilution_sensitivity": { "extra_awards_bn": 0.2, "price": 341.40222529676095, "cash_proceeds": 0, "identity": "纯分母检查；不是现实授予/融资政策分析" }, "teaching_examples": { "mixed_equity_bridge": { "industrial_ev": 600, "industrial_debt": 120, "bank_equity": 200, "bank_debt_already_in_equity": 1000, "nonoperating_cash": 30, "parent_debt": 40, "shares": 10, "common_equity": 670, "price": 67, "identity": "纯教学设定；不是任何公司披露" }, "brier": { "hypothetical_observation": "Base", "adopted": 0.4522, "capital_pressure": 0.4728, "normalization": "sum over four classes, no one-half; range0–2" } } }