[ { "id": "PBCD-METHOD-BUSINESS", "title": "业务关系、校准与共同经营状态", "authors": [ "本站方法" ], "version": "2026-09-21 局部准确摘编", "url": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/zh/notebook/business-relations-calibrated-states/", "body": "本站原创方法摘编，规定业务边界、校准与共同资本责任；公开原件各自支持实例，不是完整方法的外部背书。", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "locators": [ "business-boundaries", "calibration-contract", "common-state-path", "path-capital-check" ], "read_scope": "完整短参考；由同一Markdown产生网页/Agent数据。", "access_kind": "site_body", "availability": "staged_site_body; valid on adoption, not yet published", "actual_read_scope": "完整短参考；由同一Markdown产生网页/Agent数据。", "author_source_id": "PBCD-METHOD-BUSINESS" }, { "id": "PBCD-METHOD-RR", "title": "业务状态下的条件定价、普通股桥与Risk-Reward", "authors": [ "本站方法" ], "version": "2026-09-21 局部准确摘编", "url": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/zh/notebook/conditional-pricing-common-equity-risk-reward/", "body": "规定估值组、盈利/参照、普通股桥、状态权重和日期现金的输入输出与边界。", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "locators": [ "valuation-groups", "earnings-reference", "common-equity-bridge", "states-and-probability", "dated-shareholder-results" ], "read_scope": "完整短参考；不引入股票DCF/WACC。", "access_kind": "site_body", "availability": "staged_site_body; valid on adoption, not yet published", "actual_read_scope": "完整短参考；不引入股票DCF/WACC。", "author_source_id": "PBCD-METHOD-RR" }, { "id": "PBCD-CASE-AMZN", "title": "Amazon：2026-09-20历史条件研究案例", "authors": [ "本站历史研究" ], "version": "研究截止2026-09-20；教学摘编2026-09-21", "url": "https://ou-liu-red-sugar.github.io/zh/notebook/amzn-research-20260920/", "body": "原研究的事实/分析代理、四条未来路径、5项具名替代、4套权重与16组已算分布。报价冻结，代表点不是条件均值。", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "locators": [ "case-amzn-facts", "case-amzn-operating", "case-amzn-capital", "case-amzn-equity", "case-amzn-probabilities", "case-amzn-distributions" ], "read_scope": "由已读取冻结字段生成本包完整可读案例；本次未重新估值或更新报价。", "access_kind": "site_body", "availability": "staged_site_body; valid on adoption, not yet published", "case_id": "CASE-AMZN-20260920", "period": "2025Q4–2026Q2 facts; 2026H2–2029 conditional paths", "cutoff": "2026-09-20", "actual_read_scope": "由已读取冻结字段生成本包完整可读案例；本次未重新估值或更新报价。", "author_source_id": "PBCD-CASE-AMZN" }, { "id": "src-amzn-2026q2", "title": "Amazon Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 30, 2026", "authors": [ "Amazon.com, Inc." ], "version": "2026Q2 SEC filing", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000026/amzn-20260630.htm", "body": "分部范围与经营费用使用分配、产品收入、PP&E取得和折旧；债务/租赁、SBC/RSU等资本权利实例。未来余额不由当期附注直接给出。", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "locators": [ "Note8 pp22–25", "Note3 pp13–14", "Note4 p15 Commitments", "Note5 pp17–18 debt table and notes", "Note6 p19" ], "read_scope": "本次重开Note8整单元；租赁余额/期限及成本表、融资承诺表与脚注、债务本金/账面及费用桥、RSU/SBC单元。不是整份10-Q全部审阅。", "access_kind": "html_full_text", "actual_read_scope": "本次重开Note8整单元；租赁余额/期限及成本表、融资承诺表与脚注、债务本金/账面及费用桥、RSU/SBC单元。不是整份10-Q全部审阅。", "author_source_id": "PBCD-AMZN-10Q" }, { "id": "PBCD-TALEN-PPA", "title": "Talen 8-K, Exhibit 99.1: nuclear energy relationship with Amazon", "authors": [ "Talen Energy Corporation" ], "version": "2025-06-11 announcement", "url": "https://ir.talenenergy.com/static-files/90cce90c-e281-42c6-b686-ed6010dd8699", "body": "公告中的1,920MW为满额供电计划，预计爬坡最迟2032达到；供电数量不等于AWS当期IT容量或收费收入。", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "locators": [ "Ex99.1 printed p1 (PDF p4)", "Ex99.1 printed p3 forward-looking statements (PDF p6)" ], "read_scope": "上述完整页和前瞻说明，已查看原页；未用公告确认后来全部交付。", "access_kind": "pdf_full_text", "actual_read_scope": "上述完整页和前瞻说明，已查看原页；未用公告确认后来全部交付。", "author_source_id": "PBCD-TALEN-PPA" }, { "id": "PBCD-FASB-2023-07", "title": "Segment Reporting (Topic 280): Improvements to Reportable Segment Disclosures", "authors": [ "FASB" ], "version": "ASU 2023-07, November 2023", "url": "https://storage.fasb.org/ASU%202023-07.pdf", "body": "CODM管理视角、定期提供并包含在利润计量中的重大费用、其他分部项目与共同费用；不决定投资者估值组。", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "locators": [ "280-10-50-26A–26C", "280-10-50-27", "280-10-55-15C" ], "read_scope": "指定修订单元与共同费用例；实看PDF物理pp12–13、20，印刷pp8–9、16。未称全文76页已读。", "access_kind": "pdf_full_text", "actual_read_scope": "指定修订单元与共同费用例；实看PDF物理pp12–13、20，印刷pp8–9、16。未称全文76页已读。", "author_source_id": "PBCD-FASB-2023-07" }, { "id": "PBCD-RELVAL-2024", "title": "Relative Valuation lecture packet", "authors": [ "Aswath Damodaran" ], "version": "Spring 2024", "url": "https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pdfiles/eqnotes/valpacket2spr24.pdf", "body": "相对估值的分子/分母索取权一致性、定义与统计描述，以及按相关基本面选择参照。", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "locators": [ "pp6–12", "pp56–57" ], "read_scope": "九页正文与原图实际逐页读取；不采用p55未读图、DCF、WACC或公式倍数。无~旧入口失败后使用同版可读~入口。", "access_kind": "pdf_full_text", "actual_read_scope": "九页正文与原图实际逐页读取；不采用p55未读图、DCF、WACC或公式倍数。无~旧入口失败后使用同版可读~入口。", "author_source_id": "PBCD-RELVAL-2024" }, { "id": "PBCD-GOOGL-FY2025", "title": "Alphabet Q4 and FY2025 earnings exhibit", "authors": [ "Alphabet Inc." ], "version": "2026-02-04, FY ended2025-12-31", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000012/googexhibit991q42025.htm", "body": "全年营业利润129.039bn，作为截至2026年6月末TTM的旧全年组成。", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "locators": [ "p5 Consolidated Statements of Income, full-year columns" ], "read_scope": "所用完整损益表及单位，未采用当前报价。", "access_kind": "html_full_text", "actual_read_scope": "所用完整损益表及单位，未采用当前报价。", "author_source_id": "PBCD-GOOGL-FY2025" }, { "id": "src-goog-2026q2", "title": "Alphabet Form 10-Q, quarter ended June 30, 2026", "authors": [ "Alphabet Inc." ], "version": "2026Q2 SEC filing", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204426000071/goog-20260630.htm", "body": "H1营业利润61.877/80.466bn，非上市证券账面131.461，租赁18.037/2.590，优先权385m存托份×50美元；账面/清算代理不等于交易市值。", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "locators": [ "p5 six-month income statement", "Note3 pp17–18 non-marketable securities", "Note4 lease balances/maturities", "Note6 debt", "Note11 p34 mandatory convertible preferred, opening three paragraphs" ], "read_scope": "本次指定损益、非上市证券、租赁及优先权单元；债务总体口径同时沿批准的冻结研究桥，未扩查全部债务合约。", "access_kind": "html_full_text", "actual_read_scope": "本次指定损益、非上市证券、租赁及优先权单元；债务总体口径同时沿批准的冻结研究桥，未扩查全部债务合约。", "author_source_id": "PBCD-GOOGL-10Q" }, { "id": "PBCD-WMT-FY27Q2", "title": "Walmart FY2027 Q2 earnings release", "authors": [ "Walmart Inc." ], "version": "2026-08-20, half-year ended2026-07-31", "url": "https://stock.walmart.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0000104169-26-000145/earningsreleasefy27q2.htm", "body": "H1利润16.876/14.421及借款、融资租赁、NCI和现金组件；FY2027与实际经济期间同时记录。", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "locators": [ "p8 six-month income statement", "p9 balance sheet, debt/leases/NCI/cash" ], "read_scope": "所用两张完整表及单位；不从加权平均股数生成当日市值。", "access_kind": "html_full_text", "actual_read_scope": "所用两张完整表及单位；不从加权平均股数生成当日市值。", "author_source_id": "PBCD-WMT-FY27Q2" }, { "id": "PBCD-WMT-FY27Q2-SLIDE", "title": "Walmart FY2027 Q2 presentation", "authors": [ "Walmart Inc." ], "version": "2026-08-20", "url": "https://stock.walmart.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0000104169-26-000145/earningspresentationfy27.htm", "body": "ROI reconciliation第一行TTM营业利润32.280及旧FY29.825；不采用调整后ROI分子50.285作EBIT。", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "locators": [ "slide26 Calculation of Return on Investment" ], "read_scope": "整张slide26原图已查看，文本与数据列核对。", "access_kind": "html_full_text", "actual_read_scope": "整张slide26原图已查看，文本与数据列核对。", "author_source_id": "PBCD-WMT-FY27Q2-SLIDE" }, { "id": "PBCD-MSFT-FY2026", "title": "Microsoft FY2026 Q4/FY results", "authors": [ "Microsoft Corporation" ], "version": "2026-07-29, FY ended2026-06-30", "url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/Investor/earnings/FY-2026-Q4/press-release-webcast", "body": "集团营业利润155.237、GAAP EPS17.95与按OpenAI投资影响调整EPS17.28；不提供纯Azure倍数。", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "locators": [ "FY GAAP/non-GAAP reconciliation", "FY Income Statements" ], "read_scope": "上述完整利润/reconciliation单元及相关财务表；未完整取得10-K租赁附注，所以本包不采用MSFT租赁统一EV图。", "access_kind": "html_full_text", "actual_read_scope": "上述完整利润/reconciliation单元及相关财务表；未完整取得10-K租赁附注，所以本包不采用MSFT租赁统一EV图。", "author_source_id": "PBCD-MSFT-FY2026" }, { "id": "PBCD-IAB-PWC-2025", "title": "Internet Advertising Revenue Report, Full-Year2025", "authors": [ "IAB", "PwC" ], "version": "2026-04", "url": "https://www.iab.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/IAB_PwC_Internet_Ad_Revenue_Report_Full_Year_2025_April_2026.pdf", "body": "美国commerce media收入63.4bn、报告增速18%，并有测量/增量回报约束；范围不是Amazon全球广告。", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "locators": [ "p27 commerce media", "p32 definitions", "p35 methodology" ], "read_scope": "三页正文、图与定义/方法实际看原页；不称43页全部重读。", "access_kind": "pdf_full_text", "actual_read_scope": "三页正文、图与定义/方法实际看原页；不称43页全部重读。", "author_source_id": "PBCD-IAB-PWC-2025" }, { "id": "PBCD-CMA-CLOUD-2025", "title": "Cloud Infrastructure Services: Final Decision Report", "authors": [ "Competition and Markets Authority" ], "version": "2025 final report", "url": "https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/688b8891fdde2b8f73469544/final_decision_report.pdf", "body": "历史英国技术迁移/multi-cloud摩擦及缓解并存；不从这一单元推全球AWS增长或现行费用政策。", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "locators": [ "§§6.320–6.325, printedpp326–327" ], "read_scope": "两页完整指定单元，原页已看；不作为全部637页阅读。", "access_kind": "pdf_full_text", "actual_read_scope": "两页完整指定单元，原页已看；不作为全部637页阅读。", "author_source_id": "PBCD-CMA-CLOUD-2025" }, { "id": "PBCD-IEA-AI-2026-HTML", "title": "Key Questions on Energy and AI — Executive summary", "authors": [ "International Energy Agency" ], "version": "2026-04-16", "url": "https://www.iea.org/reports/key-questions-on-energy-and-ai/executive-summary", "body": "AI资本链中的供应/设备/电网与融资限制；采用行业机制，不推AWS具体容量或收益率。", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "locators": [ "Complete subsection beginning “Across the AI value chain, a scramble…”" ], "read_scope": "实际取得官方HTML指定完整小节及相邻供给展望。PDF直链反复失败，未将其p47记作本次读取；PPA具体事实改用已读Talen原件。", "access_kind": "html_full_text", "fallback_for": "IEA PDF supply-and-finance discussion only; not equivalent to entire PDF", "actual_read_scope": "实际取得官方HTML指定完整小节及相邻供给展望。PDF直链反复失败，未将其p47记作本次读取；PPA具体事实改用已读Talen原件。", "author_source_id": "PBCD-IEA-AI-2026-HTML" }, { "id": "PBCD-CROUZET-EBERLY-2023", "title": "Rents and Intangible Capital: A Q+ Framework", "authors": [ "Nicolas Crouzet", "Janice C. Eberly" ], "version": "Journal of Finance78(4),2023,DOI10.1111/jofi.13231", "url": "https://www.kellogg.northwestern.edu/faculty/crouzet/html/papers/Qplus_published.pdf", "body": "无形资本和经济租金的交互视角；不证明AMZN分部倍数或具体共享费用归属。", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "locators": [ "pp1873–1875 abstract and opening introduction excerpt" ], "read_scope": "三页原文/原页；不是全篇模型、证明或实证复现。统一选读，不列P28硬必读。", "access_kind": "pdf_full_text", "optional_only": true, "actual_read_scope": "三页原文/原页；不是全篇模型、证明或实证复现。统一选读，不列P28硬必读。", "author_source_id": "PBCD-CROUZET-EBERLY-2023" }, { "id": "PBCD-SILVA-CALIBRATION-2023", "title": "Classifier calibration: a survey on how to assess and improve predicted class probabilities", "authors": [ "Telmo Silva Filho", "et al." ], "version": "Machine Learning112,2023,DOI10.1007/s10994-023-06336-7", "url": "https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10994-023-06336-7", "body": "多分类概率校准、未除以2的Brier及properness；单次得分不是校准直接证明，分类器论文不生成公司主观权重。", "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21", "locators": [ "§2.3", "§3 and §3.1, equations1–2" ], "read_scope": "实际取得指定定义和完整评分/Brier单元；本课期望分数的代数证明另行展示，未复现论文实证。", "access_kind": "html_full_text", "actual_read_scope": "实际取得指定定义和完整评分/Brier单元；本课期望分数的代数证明另行展示，未复现论文实证。", "author_source_id": "PBCD-SILVA-CALIBRATION-2023" } ]